[stevenash]

Forget the price tag, which ace pitcher today will outperform the others.

Verlander v. White Sox
Justin is a strike out machine and a no hitter waiting to happen at any time.

Sabathia v. Mariners
The last time Seattle won a game Jimmy Carter was in office, CC is 14-3 with 142 K's and M's are so inept.

Lincecum v. Phillies
The Freak if on can manhandle the Phil's line up, will the Freak have his 'a' game tonight?

Kershaw v. Rockies
Kershaw hasn't given up an earned run in 23 innings, his last 3 starts.
Rox without Car-Go, without him, the line up suffers. Tulo can't do it alone.

You like pitching? I do, if you like pitching you got a baseball hard on tonight.

Look at some of the other solid pitchers going tonight.

Price goes for the Rays
Morrow goes for the Jays.

You got 6 of the top 12 or 15 pitchers hurling tonight.

[fsfalcons]

the sabathia line might go to -400

[trytrytry]

Sabathia for me would be the choice but any could toss a 3 hitter today.

[dlunc3]

Gotta go cc vs the little leaguers

[stevenash]

I forgot Weaver v. Indians
Dream Weaver can shutdown The Tribe in coma too

[stevenash]

I think Verlander could strike out 13 White Sox myself tonight.

[BigDan]

Dont forget Westbrook for stl !!

joking obviously but his sinker has been much sharper as of late. wont ever be accused of being a ace tho..

I like Kershaw (of coarse i always like clayton!). think im gonna play neither team to score 3 +450 (should be isnt out yet) in that gm hoping chacin holds his end, but will hedge with Lad 1st team to score 3.

may be a viable option in the det/cws gm as well. think Peavy will hold his own in this game and cws pen can keep det down after Peavy gives 6 strong.

[BigDan]

Dream weaver another neither to score 3 option cause he is great and Halo's arnt exactly hitting machines.

[LockPickMaster]

For a winner go with Blue Jays and Morrow.

[stevenash]

Philly has proven they can't touch Timmy, this 1/3.5 K to at bat ratio is filthy.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...5/tim-lincecum

[Romanianbornwin]

I think I gotta go with Weaver at -140. I like Sabathia but not about to lay -300's juice.

[BigDan]

Philly has proven they can't touch Timmy, this 1/3.5 K to at bat ratio is filthy.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...5/tim-lincecum

another game that could have potential as a neither to score 3 prop (ever since interleague when gms were incredibly low scoring i have been playing these from time to time with great success) the key is knowing which team is more likely to get the 3 so you can hedge with that bet or be confident enough in the under to cash to cover but when you getting between +450 and +600 (that about the range on the ones ive cashed) it hard to pass up and if you playing the right games the percentage that have hit for me is well above the profit line. just something to consider as i know you like props.

[Ice House]

I like Kershaw and Morrow

[LockPickMaster]

Oh yeah, Going with Danny Boy Duffy and the KC Royals +165
Danny gonna shut down the Sox tonight

[stevenash]

it hard to pass up and if you playing the right games the percentage that have hit for me is well above the profit line. just something to consider as i know you like props.

The thing with props is books often don't do the homework on them.
They hang a number without really doing in depth research, I can understand this, the books main concerns are the money line, run line, totals.

I have access to the Elias data base, and StatsInc, I work the fangraph website, if one puts in the homework, one will catch a soft line or two on prop bets frequently.

[BigDan]

Morrow so hard for me to trust. honestly never trust Jays at that price, although it seems they normally win when they this big of favs. Love Morrows stuff but im not always convinced his head is in the right place, once/if he puts it all together he will be mentioned among the tops in the biz.

[Milanboy]

CC against the Mariners seems like a no brainer. I also love the Verlander pick though.

[BigDan]

The thing with props is books often don't do the homework on them.
They hang a number without really doing in depth research, I can understand this, the books main concerns are the money line, run line, totals.

I have access to the Elias data base, and StatsInc, I work the fangraph website, if one puts in the homework, one will catch a soft line or two on prop bets frequently.

yea you do way more of the data base analysis than me no doubt, that why i thought id bring this up to you as i didnt know if you messed with these. at one point sea was on such a tear with these hitting at a almost every other day clip!! My work comes way more from raw numbers and observation but this is one i found and has continued to be money for me, of coarse playing them a lot less frequently than i was during interleague where i was playing 4 of these some days always hitting at least one. last 2 ive played were the kershaw/freak matchup and weaver/wilson...may be a opportunity or 2 today with these. lines dont drop on them till later and i gotta go get some work down was just curious what you thought, i will be back later and see if we can find a few worth getting creative with.

[stevenash]

Wilson is another one, total mismatch v. Minny
Thing is, Texas will not pop for 20 runs on 27 hits again.
They could, but history shows after a blood bath, the team doing the bludgeoning, really cools down the next game.
Red Sox are the exception to that rule, but know this, when Napoli is in the Ranger line up, that line up becomes more than scary.

Take away Kubel (who I've always kind of liked) who touches Wilson?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...6311/cj-wilson

[BigDan]

yea i really wanna be on Tex rl again today but the whole bludgeoning twinks got last night worries me a little, still like you said who gonna hit CJ, and then Pavano in that park? against that offense? almost have to play it.

[stevenash]

may be a viable option in the det/cws gm as well. think Peavy will hold his own in this game and cws pen can keep det down after Peavy gives 6 strong.

There's your play, great observation on Peavy, look at this link close.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...019/jake-peavy

[BigDan]

yea ive seen the numbers Peavy has against tigers. not only has he limited miggy and Magglio he also has very good numbers against lefties which is another plus against det switch hitters.

[stevenash]

Just broke down your Card game.

F-Ugly numbers.

Over should sail over.

Pujols and Holliday flat out own Myers.

What Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Brett Wallace do to Westbrook is criminal.

The OPS number is ridiculous.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...jake-westbrook

[BigDan]

no doubt, over is the way to go in that one. i know Lee's are sick vs westbrook, pretty much all you can hope for with stros is that lee and Pence hit opposing pitcher well cause they so limited (pence and Wallace good numbers but very few abs which makes it hard to really go off of imo), a lot will depend on how many grounders Westbrook gets against the others that should be outs/dps but the play doesnt get made because stl cant field, that is generally when stl pitchers get in the most trouble is when the d breaks down as most the guys dont have the stuff to be able to bail defense out of mistakes.

Jakes sinker has been much much better as of late and IF the d plays solid behind him id expect a solid outing but that still prob 7 inn 3 er maybe a unearned thrown in. if stros get to 4 this sails over. stros score 3 it be very close. also very solid ump for a over as Blazer prob wont give Westbrook the low strike he needs to be effective.

[stevenash]

Finished breaking down this card, all I can say is WOW, so much pitching in one day, it's a treat.

To answer my own question, Timmy looks like the pitcher that will have the best performance, Rox hit Kershaw a little bit, CC could get up 5-0, and go into CC mode, which is let the M's hit the ball for outs, instead of K's, so I could see CC getting dinged a little.

I'm (as of right now) STRONG on White Sox/Tigers under, Cards/Houston over, SF/Phil under.

[BigDan]

good thread bro.

cant argue with any of those plays...GL tonight

[starfire]

I forgot Weaver v. Indians
Dream Weaver can shutdown The Tribe in coma too

[Ice House]

anyone like Dodgers -1.5 and Rangers -1.5 ?

[Ice House]

Yeah but the Indians hit right handers well.... and the Angels can't hit worth shit

[BigDan]

anyone like Dodgers -1.5 and Rangers -1.5 ?

maybe that LAD rl will cash but you gotta be a little crazy to lay the 1.5 with a team that cant score. think if you going lad the juice isnt so high that you shouldnt just play ml.

personally i always play rl on tex if i play them as it seems to me they rarely win by 1. only thing that bothers me about it is the way minny got beat down yesterday.

[stevenash]

Timmy -105 for me against line up that is overrated, I did not say the Phil line up is crap, just not as good as people think.

Rollins will swing at anything, Timmy will sit him down, Howard had success in Timmy's National TV debut, I remember that game clearly, Howard hit one off of Timmy that landed over the Camden River and wound up in NJ someplace, Utley spanked him too that game, but that was bright lights, national TV, he was barely 20 years old then.
That was 2007, now he owns Phiily.

How can you not love Timmy -105 tonight

[BigDan]

ill say it for you "philly offense is pure shit".....i got your back, now give kobe one of those mvp's you stole from him

[BigDan]

think i gotta play nym/cin un now that it dropped to 8. wasnt gonna pay the outrageous juice on the 8.5 as id rather push.

[miyakuza]

I like Kershaw and Morrow

Same EXACT opinion as mine.