LTA's MLB Plays

07-15-11 09:44 AM

I will probably play the cubs ml for the lone early game...just a small action play.

07-15-11 10:17 AM

MLB 7/14/11

Play #1

LAA/Oakland under (6.5) 1x (locked)

Play #2

KC/Minny over (9)(+ 105) 1x (locked)

At work with a ton of games still to cap in mlb and wnba, so writeups need to be short.

The angels under is based on great starting pitchers and weak offenses. Haren is top 15 or better and Mccarthy is top 30 or better in FIP, tERA and xFIP. They both get ground balls and strikeouts, while limiting home runs. Birth teams have solid defense and bullpens with weaker offenses so I'm ruling with the under here for 1x and may go higher if we get a favorable ump.

With the twins over, both pitchers have whips over 2 in their last 3 starts and rank over 100 in the league in the advanced stats I feel are most important. When you factor in a good kc offense and a twins offense that is dangerous at home with two low rated bullpens, I'm rolling with the over.

07-15-11 10:22 AM

Both my locals have the brewers total at 10.5...wish I would have played the over last night instead of waiting. If I can get 10 later today, that will be a play on the over.

GGALLERT · 07-15-11 10:52 AM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

Both my locals have the brewers total at 10.5...wish I would have played the over last night instead of waiting. If I can get 10 later today, that will be a play on the over.

10.5 is rather steep, No Cargo for Rox is my only hesitant on the over. Still sticking with the K on over...

07-15-11 12:55 PM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/14/11

Play #1

LAA/Oakland under (6.5) 1x (locked)

Play #2

KC/Minny over (9)(+ 105) 1x (locked)

At work with a ton of games still to cap in mlb and wnba, so writeups need to be short.

The angels under is based on great starting pitchers and weak offenses. Haren is top 15 or better and Mccarthy is top 30 or better in FIP, tERA and xFIP. They both get ground balls and strikeouts, while limiting home runs. Birth teams have solid defense and bullpens with weaker offenses so I'm ruling with the under here for 1x and may go higher if we get a favorable ump.

With the twins over, both pitchers have whips over 2 in their last 3 starts and rank over 100 in the league in the advanced stats I feel are most important. When you factor in a good kc offense and a twins offense that is dangerous at home with two low rated bullpens, I'm rolling with the over.

Play #3

Cubs ML (-105) 0.50x (locked)

Play #4

Indians ML (-105) 1x (locked)

Dempster throws a ton of ground balls and has dominated the marlins over his career since leaving florida with 2.54 era in 40 innings. Plus he has pitched extremely well in his last ten starts. After yesterdays debacle, the flubs should win today.

I like the indians again today for the same reasons as yesterday...we have a huge disparity in starting pitching with tomlin facing off against arrieta. Tomlin is top 100 in advanced stats with arrieta bottom 100. Plus, the indians are the better hitters, fielders and bullpen. Bol...

NBA_Brosuf · 07-15-11 12:59 PM

nice to see you again LTA. Almost didn't recognize you without that gun avatar pointing at my face. LOL

I think I am going to make my own thread and follow through this MLB season to see what's up. Total capping only and if I can, I'm going against your picks. buhahahahaha

justkidding..... Tailing you to beat the books my friend.

NBA_Brosuf · 07-15-11 01:45 PM

Loving this play...

LAA/Oakland under (6.5) 1x (locked)

doin · 07-15-11 01:57 PM

Thanks for sharing your insight and pix, LTA.

07-15-11 03:56 PM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/15/11

Play #1

LAA/Oakland under (6.5) 1x (locked)

Play #2

KC/Minny over (9)(+ 105) 1x (locked)

At work with a ton of games still to cap in mlb and wnba, so writeups need to be short.

The angels under is based on great starting pitchers and weak offenses. Haren is top 15 or better and Mccarthy is top 30 or better in FIP, tERA and xFIP. They both get ground balls and strikeouts, while limiting home runs. Birth teams have solid defense and bullpens with weaker offenses so I'm ruling with the under here for 1x and may go higher if we get a favorable ump.

With the twins over, both pitchers have whips over 2 in their last 3 starts and rank over 100 in the league in the advanced stats I feel are most important. When you factor in a good kc offense and a twins offense that is dangerous at home with two low rated bullpens, I'm rolling with the over.

Play #3

Cubs ML (-105) 0.50x (locked)

Play #4

Indians ML (-105) 1x (locked)

Dempster throws a ton of ground balls and has dominated the marlins over his career since leaving florida with 2.54 era in 40 innings. Plus he has pitched extremely well in his last ten starts. After yesterdays debacle, the flubs should win today.

I like the indians again today for the same reasons as yesterday...we have a huge disparity in starting pitching with tomlin facing off against arrieta. Tomlin is top 100 in advanced stats with arrieta bottom 100. Plus, the indians are the better hitters, fielders and bullpen. Bol...

Play #5

Brewers/Rockies over (10)(-115) 1x (locked)

I cost myself a half run and juice by waiting on this one until today. However, I still like it at 10. The game is in colorado so we have the light air and both pitchers have not played well of late. I expect Narveson to pull out the win, but not before giving up 5 runs. Narveson had pitched well at times just not recently. On the year he has a solid FIP and xFIP. However, his tERA is ranked in the 120s with a poor WHIP, LOB% & HR/FB. On the other side, Nicasio has not pitched well despite some lucky starts at home the cardinals and a few others. On the year, this guy is ranked mid to bottom 100 in most advanced stats and has given up a ton of home runs evidenced by his HR/FB of 15%. These are two top 10 offenses in most categories, so I'm rolling with the over here for 1x.

07-15-11 05:12 PM

Ump update:

Rapuano is umping the Brewers game and Holbrook the Minny game. They are a combined 25-9 o/u on the year with strike percentages under 63%. I am very happy to have these umps calling our over plays. Lets cash these tickets. I'm feeling great about all of our plays tonight and expect to have a big night. I will be playing the mariners ml for sure and am contemplating playing TB -1 RL. Good luck tonight!

07-15-11 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/15/11

Play #1

LAA/Oakland under (6.5) 1x (locked)

Play #2

KC/Minny over (9)(+ 105) 1x (locked)

At work with a ton of games still to cap in mlb and wnba, so writeups need to be short.

The angels under is based on great starting pitchers and weak offenses. Haren is top 15 or better and Mccarthy is top 30 or better in FIP, tERA and xFIP. They both get ground balls and strikeouts, while limiting home runs. Birth teams have solid defense and bullpens with weaker offenses so I'm ruling with the under here for 1x and may go higher if we get a favorable ump.

With the twins over, both pitchers have whips over 2 in their last 3 starts and rank over 100 in the league in the advanced stats I feel are most important. When you factor in a good kc offense and a twins offense that is dangerous at home with two low rated bullpens, I'm rolling with the over.

Play #3

Cubs ML (-105) 0.50x (locked)

Play #4

Indians ML (-105) 1x (locked)

Dempster throws a ton of ground balls and has dominated the marlins over his career since leaving florida with 2.54 era in 40 innings. Plus he has pitched extremely well in his last ten starts. After yesterdays debacle, the flubs should win today.

I like the indians again today for the same reasons as yesterday...we have a huge disparity in starting pitching with tomlin facing off against arrieta. Tomlin is top 100 in advanced stats with arrieta bottom 100. Plus, the indians are the better hitters, fielders and bullpen. Bol...

Play #5

Brewers/Rockies over (10)(-115) 1x (locked)

I cost myself a half run and juice by waiting on this one until today. However, I still like it at 10. The game is in colorado so we have the light air and both pitchers have not played well of late. I expect Narveson to pull out the win, but not before giving up 5 runs. Narveson had pitched well at times just not recently. On the year he has a solid FIP and xFIP. However, his tERA is ranked in the 120s with a poor WHIP, LOB% & HR/FB. On the other side, Nicasio has not pitched well despite some lucky starts at home the cardinals and a few others. On the year, this guy is ranked mid to bottom 100 in most advanced stats and has given up a ton of home runs evidenced
by his HR/FB of 15%. These are two top 10 offenses in most categories, so I'm rolling with the over here for 1x.

Play #6

Seattle ML (+ 114) 1x (locked)

Play #7

TB -1 RL (0.40x on ML (-150) & 0.40x on -1.5 RL (+ 135))

In the Seattle game, we have a huge mismatch in starting pitchers as Fister dominates Lewis in every conceivable statistical category. Yes, seattle has a weak offense, but I think they rebound tonight after getting shut out yesterday. Lewis sucks on the road and is 0-4 in seattle lifetime. I think this is a good public fade at a great price for a home team that has the better starter and bullpen.

In the TB game, we have another huge disparity in starters. Price is top 20 in FIP, xFIP and tERA, while Miller was just called up from the minors last month. TB hits lefties relatively well and I think they jump on Miller early, similar to what Toronto did last night to the Yanks (just not as many runs.

I believe that is our full card tonight...7 plays with one already cashed in the cubs win. Good luck!

07-15-11 08:24 PM

Ugh...the Minny and Rocky overs look like toast. I hate big public overs...maybe we'll get lucky and the bullpens will get rocked and we can get some quick runs. The bats have a lot of work to do though.

07-15-11 09:04 PM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/15/11

Play #1

LAA/Oakland under (6.5) 1x (locked)

Play #2

KC/Minny over (9)(+ 105) 1x (locked)

At work with a ton of games still to cap in mlb and wnba, so writeups need to be short.

The angels under is based on great starting pitchers and weak offenses. Haren is top 15 or better and Mccarthy is top 30 or better in FIP, tERA and xFIP. They both get ground balls and strikeouts, while limiting home runs. Birth teams have solid defense and bullpens with weaker offenses so I'm ruling with the under here for 1x and may go higher if we get a favorable ump.

With the twins over, both pitchers have whips over 2 in their last 3 starts and rank over 100 in the league in the advanced stats I feel are most important. When you factor in a good kc offense and a twins offense that is dangerous at home with two low rated bullpens, I'm rolling with the over.

Play #3

Cubs ML (-105) 0.50x (locked)

Play #4

Indians ML (-105) 1x (locked)

Dempster throws a ton of ground balls and has dominated the marlins over his career since leaving florida with 2.54 era in 40 innings. Plus he has pitched extremely well in his last ten starts. After yesterdays debacle, the flubs should win today.

I like the indians again today for the same reasons as yesterday...we have a huge disparity in starting pitching with tomlin facing off against arrieta. Tomlin is top 100 in advanced stats with arrieta bottom 100. Plus, the indians are the better hitters, fielders and bullpen. Bol...

Play #5

Brewers/Rockies over (10)(-115) 1x (locked)

I cost myself a half run and juice by waiting on this one until today. However, I still like it at 10. The game is in colorado so we have the light air and both pitchers have not played well of late. I expect Narveson to pull out the win, but not before giving up 5 runs. Narveson had pitched well at times just not recently. On the year he has a solid FIP and xFIP. However, his tERA is ranked in the 120s with a poor WHIP, LOB% & HR/FB. On the other side, Nicasio has not pitched well despite some lucky starts at home the cardinals and a few others. On the year, this guy is ranked mid to bottom 100 in most advanced stats and has given up a ton of home runs evidenced
by his HR/FB of 15%. These are two top 10 offenses in most categories, so I'm rolling with the over here for 1x.

Play #6

Seattle ML (+ 114) 1x (locked)

Play #7

TB -1 RL (0.40x on ML (-150) & 0.40x on -1.5 RL (+ 135))

In the Seattle game, we have a huge mismatch in starting pitchers as Fister dominates Lewis in every conceivable statistical category. Yes, seattle has a weak offense, but I think they rebound tonight after getting shut out yesterday. Lewis sucks on the road and is 0-4 in seattle lifetime. I think this is a good public fade at a great price for a home team that has the better starter and bullpen.

In the TB game, we have another huge disparity in starters. Price is top 20 in FIP, xFIP and tERA, while Miller was just called up from the minors last month. TB hits lefties relatively well and I think they jump on Miller early, similar to what Toronto did last night to the Yanks (just not as many runs.

I believe that is our full card tonight...7 plays with one already cashed in the cubs win. Good luck!

Addition to Play #1

Added 0.50x for total of 1.5x LAA/Oakland under (6.5) (Locked)

Decent under ump tonight in Iassogna...not the best but between that and the late line movement in favor of the under, I'll add on to this one. The gambling gods owe us this one after last night's horrible beat on the Giants/Pads under. Good luck!

GGALLERT · 07-15-11 10:49 PM

Rox-Brewers went silent...crap on a stick. Tomorrow is new day...

alamo · 07-15-11 11:19 PM

Dam Oak \ Angels goes over. Seems like every game is going over these days lol.
Lets regroup and have a big day tomorrow folks. Im off to cot and will see you all tomorrow

investing4us · 07-15-11 11:36 PM

Back to back shut outs for the rangers. 26 scoreless innings for seattle.

07-15-11 11:45 PM

MLB 7/16/11

Play #1

Pirates/Astros under (7.5)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)

Bud Norris v. Paul Maholm. Norris has WHIPs, FIP, xFIP and tERA of 1.25, 3.43, 3.37 and 3.74 while Maholm has 1.18, 3.69, 4.01 and and 4.34 putting Norris no worse than top 35 in the league while Maholm is no worse than top 70 in those categories. Maholm has a low BABIP in the .245 range while Norris is in the .290's indicating Maholm has been a bit lucky so far. Hopefully that continues. Norris is averaging about 9 strikeouts per game while, whereas Maholm is more of groundball pitcher with a 1.61 GB/FB ratio. Both pitcher average under 1 home run per game and strand base runners over 70% of the time with Maholm's LOB% at 74% and Norris at 72%. In addition, we have some solid team trends pointing under. Norris has 2.64 ERA at home and has limited the Pirates to 3 runs in two starts against them this year. The ump is Tim Timmons who has is 5/12 o/u on the year with a 62% strike percentage and has averaged 7 runs per game when he is behind the plate. These two teams are ranked in teh bottom 20's of the league in offense. The Pirates have a top 10 bullpen and fielding stats, but the Astros are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, I think with Norris' success at home and against the Pirates, plus Maholm's consistent under performances going 4-12 o/u on the year , I am going to take the under for 2.5x. Good luck.

07-15-11 11:49 PM

Originally Posted by alamo

Dam Oak \ Angels goes over. Seems like every game is going over these days lol.
Lets regroup and have a big day tomorrow folks. Im off to cot and will see you all tomorrow

I know right LOL...that just means some of these unders have to start hitting. I think that Wilfor dude has been taking every over. However, if he did it today it wouldn't have been successful because of the juice. I think it was 8-7 or 9-6 in favor of the over in today's games depending on the late ones, but with the juice I think it would have lost money today. I just can never blindly put my money on trends like that. With these big cards, you get a day where all of them go under and you would be broke doing that consistently.

07-15-11 11:51 PM

Originally Posted by investing4us

Back to back shut outs for the rangers. 26 scoreless innings for seattle.

I know...freeking insane. I bet they win tomorrow with King Felix on the mound, but I'm pretty sure I will not be playing them.

NBA_Brosuf · 07-16-11 12:40 AM

total capping in MLB is no joke.

Now I missed the NBA by a whole bunch

supr_villn · 07-16-11 01:31 AM

Originally Posted by NBA_Brosuf

total capping in MLB is no joke.

Now I missed the NBA by a whole bunch

totals are a sinch ,, picking winners ?? now that's murder !

07-16-11 08:34 AM

MLB Recap 7/14/11 and 7/15/11

4 - 5 = -2.7x

If not for that horrible beat on Thursday night in the Giants/Padres under, we would easily be up over the last couple days. Instead, we continue our tough two-week stretch of treading water. I have had more bad beats or bad pushes than I care to remember. Nothing we can do but keep on trucking. I can feel a huge day coming, so why not today. Good luck.

MLB 2011 Season

269 - 249 = +23.75x

Time for a big run...today is the day. We have one big play on the Pirates under and just locked in another on the Angles under (4:05 pm EST game). Good luck today!

07-16-11 08:59 AM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/16/11

Play #1

Pirates/Astros under (7.5)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)

Bud Norris v. Paul Maholm. Norris has WHIPs, FIP, xFIP and tERA of 1.25, 3.43, 3.37 and 3.74 while Maholm has 1.18, 3.69, 4.01 and and 4.34 putting Norris no worse than top 35 in the league while Maholm is no worse than top 70 in those categories. Maholm has a low BABIP in the .245 range while Norris is in the .290's indicating Maholm has been a bit lucky so far. Hopefully that continues. Norris is averaging about 9 strikeouts per game while, whereas Maholm is more of groundball pitcher with a 1.61 GB/FB ratio. Both pitcher average under 1 home run per game and strand base runners over 70% of the time with Maholm's LOB% at 74% and Norris at 72%. In addition, we have some solid team trends pointing under. Norris has 2.64 ERA at home and has limited the Pirates to 3 runs in two starts against them this year. The ump is Tim Timmons who has is 5/12 o/u on the year with a 62% strike percentage and has averaged 7 runs per game when he is behind the plate. These two teams are ranked in teh bottom 20's of the league in offense. The Pirates have a top 10 bullpen and fielding stats, but the Astros are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, I think with Norris' success at home and against the Pirates, plus Maholm's consistent under performances going 4-12 o/u on the year , I am going to take the under for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Angels/A's under (6)(+100) 2.5x (Locked)

I'm excited about this pitching matchup with Weaver v. Cahill. Weaver has been a beast all year. He is currently ranked #2 in MLB with a WHIP of .91, tERA of 2.36 and FIP of 2.4, while he is #30 in xFIP with a 3.46. Weaver has a dominating 1.86 ERA, throws over 7 strikeouts per game, has a HR/9 of .32, opponents are only hitting .192 against him, he strands a ton of runners with an LOB% of 81.2% and has held his BABIP steady at .241. He gives up too many fly balls with a FB% of 48% which provides for a poor GB/FB ratio of .71, but he limits home runs with a HR/FB of 2.7% which is tied for #1 in the league. On the other side, Cahill is young stud only in his third year but remains top 50 MLB in WHIP, FIP, xFIP and tERA. Cahill has a nice BABIP of .269 which is low enough to be good but high enough not to expect a huge regression toward the league average of .3. He holds opponents to a .235 batting average, gives up less than 1 home run per game with a .72 HR/9, and strands a ton of runners with a .77 LOB% which is top 20 MLB. With the Oakland bullpen being top 10 in the league and the Angels bullpen top 15, compared to both offenses being bottom 1/3 in the league, I think we see the under hit today. I am not at all pleased with the umpire assignments which have Dale Scott behind the plate and his low strike rate of 61.6% and his 14-6 o/u record on the year, but in games involving Weaver and Cahill, Scott has usually umped to the under. When you factor in the 8 runs these two teams scored yesterday, I think we see much less in this early game today and I'm rolling with the under for 2.5x at plus odds. Good luck!

07-16-11 09:45 AM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/16/11

Play #1

Pirates/Astros under (7.5)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)

Bud Norris v. Paul Maholm. Norris has WHIPs, FIP, xFIP and tERA of 1.25, 3.43, 3.37 and 3.74 while Maholm has 1.18, 3.69, 4.01 and and 4.34 putting Norris no worse than top 35 in the league while Maholm is no worse than top 70 in those categories. Maholm has a low BABIP in the .245 range while Norris is in the .290's indicating Maholm has been a bit lucky so far. Hopefully that continues. Norris is averaging about 9 strikeouts per game while, whereas Maholm is more of groundball pitcher with a 1.61 GB/FB ratio. Both pitcher average under 1 home run per game and strand base runners over 70% of the time with Maholm's LOB% at 74% and Norris at 72%. In addition, we have some solid team trends pointing under. Norris has 2.64 ERA at home and has limited the Pirates to 3 runs in two starts against them this year. The ump is Tim Timmons who has is 5/12 o/u on the year with a 62% strike percentage and has averaged 7 runs per game when he is behind the plate. These two teams are ranked in teh bottom 20's of the league in offense. The Pirates have a top 10 bullpen and fielding stats, but the Astros are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, I think with Norris' success at home and against the Pirates, plus Maholm's consistent under performances going 4-12 o/u on the year , I am going to take the under for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Angels/A's under (6)(+100) 2.5x (Locked)

I'm excited about this pitching matchup with Weaver v. Cahill. Weaver has been a beast all year. He is currently ranked #2 in MLB with a WHIP of .91, tERA of 2.36 and FIP of 2.4, while he is #30 in xFIP with a 3.46. Weaver has a dominating 1.86 ERA, throws over 7 strikeouts per game, has a HR/9 of .32, opponents are only hitting .192 against him, he strands a ton of runners with an LOB% of 81.2% and has held his BABIP steady at .241. He gives up too many fly balls with a FB% of 48% which provides for a poor GB/FB ratio of .71, but he limits home runs with a HR/FB of 2.7% which is tied for #1 in the league. On the other side, Cahill is young stud only in his third year but remains top 50 MLB in WHIP, FIP, xFIP and tERA. Cahill has a nice BABIP of .269 which is low enough to be good but high enough not to expect a huge regression toward the league average of .3. He holds opponents to a .235 batting average, gives up less than 1 home run per game with a .72 HR/9, and strands a ton of runners with a .77 LOB% which is top 20 MLB. With the Oakland bullpen being top 10 in the league and the Angels bullpen top 15, compared to both offenses being bottom 1/3 in the league, I think we see the under hit today. I am not at all pleased with the umpire assignments which have Dale Scott behind the plate and his low strike rate of 61.6% and his 14-6 o/u record on the year, but in games involving Weaver and Cahill, Scott has usually umped to the under. When you factor in the 8 runs these two teams scored yesterday, I think we see much less in this early game today and I'm rolling with the under for 2.5x at plus odds. Good luck!

Play #3

NYY/Toronto under (7.5)(+105) 1.25x (Locked)

All the outlets started to drop from juicing the over -120 to -115 despite 70% of all bets on the over, so I jumped on getting +105 odds when I still could. Both of my locals have since started juicing the under -105. Look, I know the Yankees have killed lefties this year. In fact, I believe they have won over 60% of their last 60 games versus left handers. However, Romero has pitched well against them this year going 13 innings and only giving up 3 earned runs. Therefore, with both ARod and Bautista out of the lineup today, I think this under sets up as a nice public fade opportunity. Sabathia has been unbelievable over his last three starts with a 0.00 ERA and .80 WHIP. However, on the year, he has been very dominant as well and I don't expect that to stop today. Sabathia is top 15 MLB in tERA with a 3.26, xFIP with a 3.09 and rated #5 MLB in FIP with a 2.5. His WHIP is top 20 material at 1.16. Sabathia has a meaty 73.7% LOB% showing he strands quite a few runners, but is not set to regress and allow more and his BABIP is right at .300 leading me to believe he will not regress as the year goes on. With Sabathia striking out almost 8 per game, but only giving up about 2 walks per game, he has as sweet 3.6 K/BB rate. Finally, Sabathia's batted ball peripherals are also top 10 MLB with a GB/FB ratio over 1.6 and a HR/FB rate of only 3.9% showing home runs are few and far between when he pitches. I look at this one a lot like the Weaver/Cahill matchup we analyzed earlier with the great vet facing the young stud. Make no mistake, Romero is a young stud. Much like Cahill, Romero is also in his third full year and also has top 50 MLB stats in WHIP, tERA, FIP and xFIP. Romero has been a bit lucky this year as evidenced by a lower BABIP of 2.72 (although this is not extremely low where a huge regression is likely) and a 79% LOB%, but he is the real deal and has been able to pitch out of jams because of his ability to get strikeouts at over 7.4 per game and a huge 1.6 GB/FB ratio good for top 30 MLB. Because he throws so many ground balls, his HR/FB ratio is high at over 11%, but that is tempered by his .96 HR/9 results which show we should only expect about 1 HR per game from him. Hopefully, if he gives up one today, it will be a solo home run. The ump in this one is Tim Tichenor who has a nice strike rate of 62.8% and is 8-12 o/u on the year and in games involving the Yankess has had 2 unders and 1 over. With both teams having top 11 bullpens in the league (Yanks #9 and Blue Jays #11) and both teams big slugger out of the lineup, I'm going to take a shot on the under here for 1.25x. Good luck!

07-16-11 10:07 AM

I'm going back to my original avatar...time to start shooting winners everywhere with Mr. White from Breaking Bad! DRZ --- I demand you cease and desist from the use of my avatar...I had it first!!!!

07-16-11 11:09 AM

Scary line movement on the Yanks/Toronto game in favor of the over. I generally never buy out of plays, but I may reduce my stake. Let's see where the line goes before first pitch.

I have to admit, I do like a lot of unders today and have another one coming up with the Phillies game. With all the overs that have been hitting lately, it's a little scary...but I'm not worried. This should be a big day.

07-16-11 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by Love The Action

MLB 7/16/11

Play #1

Pirates/Astros under (7.5)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)

Bud Norris v. Paul Maholm. Norris has WHIPs, FIP, xFIP and tERA of 1.25, 3.43, 3.37 and 3.74 while Maholm has 1.18, 3.69, 4.01 and and 4.34 putting Norris no worse than top 35 in the league while Maholm is no worse than top 70 in those categories. Maholm has a low BABIP in the .245 range while Norris is in the .290's indicating Maholm has been a bit lucky so far. Hopefully that continues. Norris is averaging about 9 strikeouts per game while, whereas Maholm is more of groundball pitcher with a 1.61 GB/FB ratio. Both pitcher average under 1 home run per game and strand base runners over 70% of the time with Maholm's LOB% at 74% and Norris at 72%. In addition, we have some solid team trends pointing under. Norris has 2.64 ERA at home and has limited the Pirates to 3 runs in two starts against them this year. The ump is Tim Timmons who has is 5/12 o/u on the year with a 62% strike percentage and has averaged 7 runs per game when he is behind the plate. These two teams are ranked in teh bottom 20's of the league in offense. The Pirates have a top 10 bullpen and fielding stats, but the Astros are ranked in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Nevertheless, I think with Norris' success at home and against the Pirates, plus Maholm's consistent under performances going 4-12 o/u on the year , I am going to take the under for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Angels/A's under (6)(+100) 2.5x (Locked)

I'm excited about this pitching matchup with Weaver v. Cahill. Weaver has been a beast all year. He is currently ranked #2 in MLB with a WHIP of .91, tERA of 2.36 and FIP of 2.4, while he is #30 in xFIP with a 3.46. Weaver has a dominating 1.86 ERA, throws over 7 strikeouts per game, has a HR/9 of .32, opponents are only hitting .192 against him, he strands a ton of runners with an LOB% of 81.2% and has held his BABIP steady at .241. He gives up too many fly balls with a FB% of 48% which provides for a poor GB/FB ratio of .71, but he limits home runs with a HR/FB of 2.7% which is tied for #1 in the league. On the other side, Cahill is young stud only in his third year but remains top 50 MLB in WHIP, FIP, xFIP and tERA. Cahill has a nice BABIP of .269 which is low enough to be good but high enough not to expect a huge regression toward the league average of .3. He holds opponents to a .235 batting average, gives up less than 1 home run per game with a .72 HR/9, and strands a ton of runners with a .77 LOB% which is top 20 MLB. With the Oakland bullpen being top 10 in the league and the Angels bullpen top 15, compared to both offenses being bottom 1/3 in the league, I think we see the under hit today. I am not at all pleased with the umpire assignments which have Dale Scott behind the plate and his low strike rate of 61.6% and his 14-6 o/u record on the year, but in games involving Weaver and Cahill, Scott has usually umped to the under. When you factor in the 8 runs these two teams scored yesterday, I think we see much less in this early game today and I'm rolling with the under for 2.5x at plus odds. Good luck!

Play #3

NYY/Toronto under (7.5)(+105) 1.25x (Locked)

All the outlets started to drop from juicing the over -120 to -115 despite 70% of all bets on the over, so I jumped on getting +105 odds when I still could. Both of my locals have since started juicing the under -105. Look, I know the Yankees have killed lefties this year. In fact, I believe they have won over 60% of their last 60 games versus left handers. However, Romero has pitched well against them this year going 13 innings and only giving up 3 earned runs. Therefore, with both ARod and Bautista out of the lineup today, I think this under sets up as a nice public fade opportunity. Sabathia has been unbelievable over his last three starts with a 0.00 ERA and .80 WHIP. However, on the year, he has been very dominant as well and I don't expect that to stop today. Sabathia is top 15 MLB in tERA with a 3.26, xFIP with a 3.09 and rated #5 MLB in FIP with a 2.5. His WHIP is top 20 material at 1.16. Sabathia has a meaty 73.7% LOB% showing he strands quite a few runners, but is not set to regress and allow more and his BABIP is right at .300 leading me to believe he will not regress as the year goes on. With Sabathia striking out almost 8 per game, but only giving up about 2 walks per game, he has as sweet 3.6 K/BB rate. Finally, Sabathia's batted ball peripherals are also top 10 MLB with a GB/FB ratio over 1.6 and a HR/FB rate of only 3.9% showing home runs are few and far between when he pitches. I look at this one a lot like the Weaver/Cahill matchup we analyzed earlier with the great vet facing the young stud. Make no mistake, Romero is a young stud. Much like Cahill, Romero is also in his third full year and also has top 50 MLB stats in WHIP, tERA, FIP and xFIP. Romero has been a bit lucky this year as evidenced by a lower BABIP of 2.72 (although this is not extremely low where a huge regression is likely) and a 79% LOB%, but he is the real deal and has been able to pitch out of jams because of his ability to get strikeouts at over 7.4 per game and a huge 1.6 GB/FB ratio good for top 30 MLB. Because he throws so many ground balls, his HR/FB ratio is high at over 11%, but that is tempered by his .96 HR/9 results which show we should only expect about 1 HR per game from him. Hopefully, if he gives up one today, it will be a solo home run. The ump in this one is Tim Tichenor who has a nice strike rate of 62.8% and is 8-12 o/u on the year and in games involving the Yankess has had 2 unders and 1 over. With both teams having top 11 bullpens in the league (Yanks #9 and Blue Jays #11) and both teams big slugger out of the lineup, I'm going to take a shot on the under here for 1.25x. Good luck!

Play #4

Philly/Mets under (7) 1.5x (Locked)

Hamels v. Niese. Much like plays 1-3, this play is based primarily on the starting pitchers. I am running short on time so I won't go into as much detail, however, it's easy to note that Hamels is having a dominant year as top 5 MLB in FIP, xFIP, WHIP and tERA. On the other side, Niese has been successful in the past against the Phillies and this year held them to 0 earned runs over 6.1 innings. However, Niese's season stats are a bit surprising as he ranks top 50 in FIP, xFIP and tERA. He is really having a nice season that projects to continue since his BABIP is over .300 and his LOB% is right at 70%. Both teams have struggled against lefties all year with batting averages (not the best stat but applicable here) around .235, but especially in the last ten games where they are both hitting around .200. With Reyes out, the Mets offense has not been as intimidating and the Mets have become a hot under team with 7 of their last 10 staying under the posted total. The Mets have an ok bullpen that was weakened by the loss of K-Rod so that does concern me and the Phillies bullpen is always a bit scary as well. The ump is Gorman, who has seen more overs hit than unders this year in his games, but he has a beautiful strike rate of 63.8% so I think his lean to the overs is an anomaly. I have this one capped at 6, so I'm going to roll with the value and take the under for 1.5x. Good luck!

csmkr18 · 07-16-11 12:07 PM

Good luck! I'm with you in all of this plays!

JR007 · 07-16-11 12:13 PM

Good luck today ...all

07-16-11 12:24 PM

Perfect example of why walks kill...Sabathia walks the leadoff hitter, the guy steals second and the Blue Jays get a bloop single to kick of the scoring in the bottom of the first and take the lead 1-0. Let's just hope the game ends with that same score. I decided not to buy out of the under at 7.5. I'm not paying any juice on the play and I hate going against my original instinct. We let it ride so let's hope for a pitcher's dual...

07-16-11 12:26 PM

Originally Posted by csmkr18

Good luck! I'm with you in all of this plays!

Originally Posted by JR007

Good luck today ...all

Good luck to you guys as well.

Capping WNBA right now. I will have a few more MLB plays though as well.

07-16-11 01:08 PM

I have a bad feeling this Yankee game ends 5-3 and we lose by the hook. Let's hope we can get a couple scoreless innings here through about the 6th and the bullpens can shut the door for the final three.

07-16-11 01:42 PM

Remaining Leans:

Cardinals ML or -1RL (probably will play)
Brewers ML (probably will play)
Brewers over
Giants over
Mariners
Mariners under (probably will play)

07-16-11 02:48 PM

I think the total on the Giant's game is very tricky based on Zito's unpredictability. He has had 3 great starts, but can lose control easily. Who knows who will show up today with him. Good luck today, love your write-ups.

ParlayKing · 07-16-11 03:02 PM

With ya on the angels/a's under again LTA, lets just hope oakland's pen keep the bats at bay or else it would be too close for comfort! GL as always!

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