[karachi]

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Minny ml (+138)
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twins win this one
chisox suck, seriously, they cant score without homers

twins are better
its a shame they have to play in chitown today
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Today, 10:36 AM #13 (permalink)
Dbldown11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanXL977
twins win this one
chisox suck, seriously, they cant score without homers

twins are better
its a shame they have to play in chitown today

It seems to me like everyone is missing the point. These are two good teams, both very different. The Sox win with power, and the twins with with small ball. The twins beat up on the sox in minnesota not because they are better, but because their park is more suited to their style of play. The Sox beat up on the twins in Chicago because The Cell is more suited to chicago's style of play. Add to that the fact that the Sox are riding high in all aspects of the game, and the Twins didnt even know they were playing today or get on a plane until last night. The Sox win this game today, not because they are a better team necessarily (although I think they are) but because the only thing that matters in this series as shown by both teams records all year in general and against eachother is home field advantage. Sox roll big time, take them run line
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Today, 10:39 AM #14 (permalink)
ryanXL977
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i understand the home road splits. but with no quentin, and with the twins having an extra day of rest, i think the value at +140 is too much. nobody can pick winners, you can only pick value. the chisox play some of the worst defense in the league, have a worse pen, and a worse mgr

twins are a better team. i hope they win today and more importantly, at +140 with equal teams, ill take the dog
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Today, 10:46 AM #15 (permalink)
Dbldown11
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I disagree with that statement completely. If you are picking only "value" in the MLB then you should pick the dog in every single game without question because of how often dogs win in baseball. In baseball you have to pick the team you believe will win the game. That is harder to do in the regular season than in a game like this. The "day of rest" means nothing, if anything it will hurt the twins because the sox are pumped up while the twins spent the day sitting around watching the tv. Better manager? when was the last world series he won??? Sox pen has played great the past two games, and everyone knows how streaky baseball is and the sox are on a good streak. And the sox while not the greatest defensive team DEFFINATELY do not play some of the worst defense in the league. And finally you say +140 with equal teams is the way to go. On a neutral field perhaps. But the whole point of all of this is that these two teams are NOWHERE near equal when they have to play in eachothers ballbarks, the home team ALWAYS has a HUGE advantage. I'm not trying to talk you out of your pick....I'm just saying the sox win this one big
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Today, 10:51 AM #16 (permalink)
tab
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Twins ML 5 innings +125
Twins -1.5 +180
Twins team total over 4 runs (-125)

Justin Morneau's stats: 7/16, 3 homers, 4 walks, 2 doubles, 8 rgi's

THe twins catcher is 8/12, 2 walks

Danks going on 3 days rest. Blackburn going on 5 days rest.
Possibility of rain. Danks will not make it to the 5th inning. The twins bullpen is rested and better than whitesox bullpen.
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Today, 10:58 AM #17 (permalink)
Dbldown11
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I dont know why the vast majority of people are on the twins.....The only stat that matters is wins and losses. The white sox Vs. twins at U.S. Celluar Field this year: 7-1.....I will repeat the 7-1. Keep throwing your money away and lowering the line for me.
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Today, 11:00 AM #18 (permalink)
tab
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dbldown11
I disagree with that statement completely. If you are picking only "value" in the MLB then you should pick the dog in every single game without question because of how often dogs win in baseball. In baseball you have to pick the team you believe will win the game. That is harder to do in the regular season than in a game like this. The "day of rest" means nothing, if anything it will hurt the twins because the sox are pumped up while the twins spent the day sitting around watching the tv. Better manager? when was the last world series he won??? Sox pen has played great the past two games, and everyone knows how streaky baseball is and the sox are on a good streak. And the sox while not the greatest defensive team DEFFINATELY do not play some of the worst defense in the league. And finally you say +140 with equal teams is the way to go. On a neutral field perhaps. But the whole point of all of this is that these two teams are NOWHERE near equal when they have to play in eachothers ballbarks, the home team ALWAYS has a HUGE advantage. I'm not trying to talk you out of your pick....I'm just saying the sox win this one big


The twins were not playing their best baseball when they were playing the whitessox in june. Twins are going to be pumped up too. THey are going to play with confidence. Even if Danks had 5-7 days of rest, I got to go with the twins. THe sox are not on a streak. The white sox led their division until the last week of the season.
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Today, 11:10 AM #19 (permalink)
Dbldown11
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And the Twins are playing their best baseball now? They lost 2 of three at home to the royals..... I'll stop posting now, since there is no point in arguing. Just my 2 cents.

Ill return with my I told you so post after the game

OK GUYS STOP NAILING EACH OTHER WE ALL HERE TO WIN AND SWAMI BABA HAVE JUST REALEASE HIS PICKS IT IS GOING TO BE WSOX &OVER AGAIN GOODLUCK EVERY ONE.

[Dbldown11]

You are correct sir

[LT Profits]

Twins are the bet here. I have the White Sox winning this game about 55% of the time, which has a BE of +/-122. So all the value is on the Minneota side at +137, while the White Sox are -EV at -145.

And if the White Sox win this game, that would not change the fact that the Twins are the bet at these odds. Remember that it's a marathon and not a sprint, and winning in the LONG-TERM is all that matters.

[smitch124]

The thing I would be cautious of in this game is Blackburn's form:

.997 OPS against in September...thats awful

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Twins are the bet here. I have the White Sox winning this game about 55% of the time, which has a BE of +/-122. So all the value is on the Minneota side at +137, while the White Sox are -EV at -145.

And if the White Sox win this game, that would not change the fact that the Twins are the bet at these odds. Remember that it's a marathon and not a sprint, and winning in the LONG-TERM is all that matters.

You've got the sox winning 55% of the time....so that makes it the bet for you. Still doesnt make sense for someone who realizes how important home field is with these two teams....I have the sox winning 7 out of 8 times which is exactly what they've done at home against this team. So the sox are the way to go. Where do you get 55% that's just a made up number?????

[ryanXL977]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

You've got the sox winning 55% of the time....so that makes it the bet for you. Still doesnt make sense for someone who realizes how important home field is with these two teams....I have the sox winning 7 out of 8 times which is exactly what they've done at home against this team. So the sox are the way to go. Where do you get 55% that's just a made up number?????

sox winning 7 of 8? thats insane dude. youll lose your roll fast if you believe twins will win 12.5% of the time at chisox

[Dbldown11]

Actually ryan that's not what I believe that is what has happend this entire year. And you keep bringing up the fact that the twins dont count on the home run to score, that what factor in if this game were being played in minnesota, thats why the sox cant win there. But it's not, this game is being played in Chicago where the long ball is the way to play, which is why to sox succeed there, and will succeed there tonight

[ryanXL977]

sox havent won 7 of 8 , its 7 of 9
either way, chisox suck. they won yesterday bc detroit throws wild pitches when the game is on the line

twins are better
they win today

[Dbldown11]

we are obviously going to just keep going back and forth ryan. I have comfort in knowing my logic makes sense, and yours doesnt really and you dont even have much to back up your stats. So I am going to stop going back and forth. Just promise me that after the game you will come back on and post that I was right and you were wrong. I'll do the same (but i wont have to)

[LT Profits]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

You've got the sox winning 55% of the time....so that makes it the bet for you. Still doesnt make sense for someone who realizes how important home field is with these two teams....I have the sox winning 7 out of 8 times which is exactly what they've done at home against this team. So the sox are the way to go. Where do you get 55% that's just a made up number?????

Fact that Sox are 7-1 head-to-head at home is irrelevant.

I handicap the Twins to win 55% of the time on a neutral field just based on lineups, starters and bullpens alone. Then I adjusted 10% for home field and that's how I get White Sox 55% at home.

[Dbldown11]

.....there's a problem in this series home field advantage is worth far more than 10%. If you look at these two teams and their series together each and every year the home team always dominates. I just disagree with a statement that you have to look for value when making bets in baseball. Baseball is different that other sports. I look for value lines in football or basketball. but in baseball it's about one thing who wins. There is no value in picking a team that wont win. If baseball was just about betting value then the underdog would always be the play, but as we all know that is not a profitable proposition

[karachi]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

we are obviously going to just keep going back and forth ryan. I have comfort in knowing my logic makes sense, and yours doesnt really and you dont even have much to back up your stats. So I am going to stop going back and forth. Just promise me that after the game you will come back on and post that I was right and you were wrong. I'll do the same (but i wont have to)

[ryanXL977]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

.....there's a problem in this series home field advantage is worth far more than 10%. If you look at these two teams and their series together each and every year the home team always dominates. I just disagree with a statement that you have to look for value when making bets in baseball. Baseball is different that other sports. I look for value lines in football or basketball. but in baseball it's about one thing who wins. There is no value in picking a team that wont win. If baseball was just about betting value then the underdog would always be the play, but as we all know that is not a profitable proposition

and you know the twins wont win because what? bc you say so? teams win games all the time. twins are better. if you know who will win, then you should bet your house on this game

[Dbldown11]

I dont KNOW that the twins will lose. But I think it is very unlikely that they will win. Every single meaningful stat that I look at in this series says that the sox will win. Where do you get off saying the twins have a better team? If I'm not mistaken they ended the season with the exact same record. Sox have more momentum coming into the game, sox are at home (which is huge), and the sox bats have come around the past few days, they will be hitting the ball all around the park tonight. We can go back and forth all day. I just can't wait 4 more hours to watch what I have laid out here play our just like I say

[ryanXL977]

sox have lost 5 of their last 7, id hardly call that momentum. locks dont exist
chisox suck

[Dbldown11]

we will see Ryan we will see.

So you will come back after the game to post that I was right when the sox beat up on the twins right???

[ryanXL977]

of course. i have no problem losing dude. if im wrong, so be it.
i fully admit they can lose this game, its a tossup to me.

[karachi]

Originally Posted by ryanXL977

and you know the twins wont win because what? bc you say so? teams win games all the time. twins are better. if you know who will win, then you should bet your house on this game

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3189/2735166921_cfe3deb665.jpg?v=1217993123[/IMG]

IN MY HUMBOL OPPINION YOU BOTH ARE RIGHT AND WRONG ANY SPORTS GAMBLING STATUS MEAN NOTHING THEY ALL BULLSHIT FOR EXAMPLE IF ESPN THROWING TOO MANY FLOWERS DURING THE WEEK FOR 1 PARTICULAR TEAM OR COACH YOU SHOULD HAVE YOUR PICK THERE THAT ONE WILL LOSS BIG TIME ITS ALL ABOUT MONEY $$$$$$$ AS FOR MATCHUP TONIGT IN MY OPINION WSOX SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN -120 BUT DE ODDS MAKER THEORY IS WORKING AND MONEY IS POURING ON MINN ONLY FOR THAT REASON I LIKE WSOX .

[karachi]

Espn 61% Twins 39% Sox Total Votes12,807
Fox Sports 61% Twins 39% Sox Total Votes 19,528

[ryanXL977]

luckily polls dont determine game winners
i would wager that espn had cowboys at 90% vs skins too

[karachi]

Originally Posted by ryanXL977

luckily polls dont determine game winners
i would wager that espn had cowboys at 90% vs skins too

I AGREE, ONLY UMPIRES AND COACHES determine game winners

[jagermeister1]

I like the sox here. i just don't like them at -144 or whatever it is. seems a bit much.

I got 1 unit on sox -1.5 +140, and 1 unit on over 9 -125. You got 2 pitchers who have not really pitched well in over a month and it's in a hitter's park. We're gonna have 10 runs by the end of the 7th inning. Reason for sox at -1.5 +140 is that a) they got home field advantage, b) enormous momentum of that big win, and c) they score so much better in that park than the twins' offense does. at +140, I'm willing to bet they win by more than a run.

as far as all the other banter on here goes, I'd say neither team has shown statistically that they are the clear favorite, so those 3 reasons above are why my money is where it is tonight.

[El Sol]

What Im reading is simply two ways at looking wagering. Betting or investing. Sprint or marathon. Lt isnt necessarily predicting minn to win today, though it would be nice. His outlook is similar to Vegas and table games. They wont pull that roulette table because it lost money for the day or even for the week. But by years end it will make money. Its the same with LT anaylise of this game. Similar situations amoung similar teams will make him a profit by years end.

[jagermeister1]

Originally Posted by El Sol

What Im reading is simply two ways at looking wagering. Betting or investing. Sprint or marathon. Lt isnt necessarily predicting minn to win today, though it would be nice. His outlook is similar to Vegas and table games. They wont pull that roulette table because it lost money for the day or even for the week. But by years end it will make money. Its the same with LT anaylise of this game. Similar situations amoung similar teams will make him a profit by years end.

Very good point, Sol. I'm gonna post this one on the bulletin board behind the iMac.