[Mudcat]

I can talk about a few rules from my experience.

I'm not sure if this applies to what you were asking about public teams but I find that, when I want to bet against a team that has drawn a lot of action it is best to bet late - but not too late. Usually if a line moves a long way over the course of a day or a week, there is a late bounce.

I have a theory on why that occurs but that's not really important.

So I find that it's good to place the bet half an hour before gametime if it's a line that has been moving for a day, and a full hour before gametime if it's an NFL line that has been moving all week. It's hard because you see a line moving so much and you think it's got to keep going - but I got burned enough times that this is what I try to do.

And of course this is not a 100% rule and sometimes the line will keep moving and I'll feel like a fool.

I bet a lot of lop-sided moneyline dogs (over +200) and, as a rule, it is best to place those bets late. Again, it's far from a 100% certainty that the line will keep moving in your favor, but I have done research and it is well over 50%.

I find this also applies to lop-sided pointspreads on dogs, although the effect is not as pronounced.