I'm going to jump in here. I know you and I have talked about this a bit so you already know my thoughts but, just for the sake of general discussion, I'll chime in.
1. What percentage of my bankroll should I bet on each game. I plan to stick to 2% of my bankroll. I feel that is really good but I’ve seen people recommend playing 5% of their bankroll on one play. That seems rather high to me. Is there a right answer here or is this something you have to get a feel for and know your own skills as a handicapper.
2% is a good conservative number. Nothing wrong with being conservative at all. The answer to this question depends quite a bit on your psychology and how freaked out you get from the inevitable losing streaks. 2% basically protects you from a 50 game losing streak (or any stretch where you lose 50 more games than you win). I’m not sure where you’re getting your picks from but even if you’re just flipping a coin, it is not easy to go on a streak where you lose 50 more than you win. Plus unit size can be readjusted at any time.
Personally I don’t mind going 3 or 4% on football spreads and totals because I know I’m going to hit about 57% long-term so a 25-33 bet losing streak just doesn’t happen. But I also bet big moneyline dogs and keep those lower.
2. Let’s say, hypothetically, I have a $10,000 bankroll and I dispense $2000 into five different sportsbooks. Now, 2% of a $10,000 bankroll is $200. Is that my play on each bet or should I vary it according to the $2000 in each book…hence each play is $40 rather than $200 because $2000.00 x .02 is $40.
IMO, you should use 2% of the total amount, not the amount per sportsbook.
3. Let’s say I had a rough couple weeks to start off football and my bankroll is down to $8,542.71 total. Do I continue playing 2% of my bankroll or do I start to adjust and play a new amount according to what is in my account (i.e. $8,542.71 x .02 = $170.85).
Personal decision. I am so confident in the fact that I will win long-term, that I would just stick with the original amount. But I have years and years of experience to back that up. If you're just starting out, it would be very easy to start second-guessing yourself during the first big losing streak.
So that's a question I can't answer for anyone else.
4. I was always taught never to vary your bankroll size whether you are up or down…so do I always stick to the same percentage for each bet. I operate under the assumption that each game I bet is an independent event. I don’t believe things like if I am on a hot streak I should increase slight and conversely if I am struggling I should decrease slightly. I am content to stick with the same percentage each game regardless…is this good thinking or am I missing something here.
Regarding what you said about streaks, that's good thinking in my book. That is my philosophy exactly. I set my unit size and stick with it. I re-evaluate it periodically (once a month or so) to see if it should be increased and that's it.
No gambling gods and no voodoo. Everything is science.
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