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Originally Posted by adriano
Benfica/FC Barcelona
Over 2 and 2.5 +102
I think Barca should win the first leg of this tie. My only concern is them missing 3 key defenders in captain Puyol, Edmilson and Maruqez. On the other hand Benfica know they have no chance of progressing if they have to win or get a good result at Nou Camp, so home team will try to get some advantage from this game and score some goals. Best bet here is the Over goals.
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All very true .. but remember that this same Benfica side have accounted for Man U and Liverpool ... and have done so 'their way' both home and away.
I rate Barca very highly and find it hard to bet against them but the odds for Benfica at home are good value.
As for the goals, Benfica are designed for the low scoring game and I think I am right in seeing Barca have had a few 0-0 aways recently domestically (I may be wrong here).
I find games like this (and the Arse-Juve game) hard to get an angle on. If you have to bet on it (and I dont think these type of 'anything could happen' games are good for betting) but if you had to, Id recommend examining Benfica on the Asians as that is where the real value will be.
Benfica at 5.0 at Expekt is crazy. To put the spin the other way around, Barca will be happy to take them home with minimal damage ... a 0-0, 1-1, even 0-1, 1-2 would be very OK for them.
Good luck though Adriano