Quote:
Originally Posted by Dashwood Clipper
Indians/Reds
Im on the Tribe and the under 8.5
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Carmona @ Harang
The first thing that jumps out is the two starters, obviously, and then the total that sits a bit high at 8.5. This is likely related to weather or the ump, so i'll check those things out now.
Tom Hallion is behind the plate tonight and hes been pretty even with 6 of his first 10 games going under. Last season he was more of an over ump with the over going 19-15. Toms first 5 games all went under and that was followed by a streak of 4 overs before his last game, (estes/marquis) went under earlier in the week. So, it aint the ump. I'll take a look at the weather, i have a feeling i know what im going to find...
Wind. Yep, 20mph winds blowing out towards left field today with scattered thunderstorms. Wind = over. Rain delays = increased chance for delays and needing to go to the bullpen a bit earlier. you never want to break a pitchers rhythm and some managers wont bring their starters back after a length delay. It looks like they'll get the game in today, but it could take a while.
Faustos Ks are way down and his walks are way up. Each of those statstics, BB and K, are absolutely pathetic for Carmona this season, but he continues to have success. The righty is walking 6.47 batters per 9 and only striking out .51 batters per walk allowed. Carmona is an extreme ground ball pitcher which will give him an advantage today with the wind blowing out and opposing a lineup that likes to swing for the fences at home. Carmonas batted ball chart looks like this:
Here is what the youngster throws:
- 81.6% FB
- 8% sliders
- 10.3% splitters
everything he throws sinks which makes him tough to hit HRs against; on the season Carmona has given up just 1 HR
6-7 Aaron Harang is putting together another excellent season. He has an era of 3.32 and has allowed just 55 hits in 62.1 innings while recording 51Ks. Harang is a bit of a fly ball pitcher which could spell trouble today if the winds continue to blow at 15+ MPH. Here is Harangs batted ball chart:
With only 35% of the balls batted against him being grounders, he will have to avoid the walks and try to stay out of the big innings if he can't keep the ball down. On the season Harang is allowing just 2.17 walks per 9 which is strong.
Aaron is essentially a 2 pitch pitcher, he likes the FB and the slider. Here is what he throws:
- 68.8% FB
- 25.9% Slider
- 2.3% Curve
- 2.9% change
Clev has been very good this month with a 9-5 record, but their offense has continued to struggle as they've posted just 4 runs a game over their last 7. Worse still, Clev is batting just .206 over their last seven games which is ridiculous.
Cinci, on the other hand, has been raking with 5.7 runs per game in their last 7 and a BA over .300. Unfortunately, they've been giving up as many runs as they've scored over that span.
Each of these bullpens has been decent in the home/road spots they find themselves in today. Cinci's pen has been especially impressive at home with an era of 2.83 and a whip under 1.20.
The cinci starter has some experience vs the tribe and hes been pretty dominant against everyone but Sizemore. overall the clev lineup is only batting .237 against him with an OPS over .646. Carmona, has not had similar success against the Cinci roster. as a team the reds players are batting .292 against Fausto in 24 ABs. The redeeming news for the right-hander is the fact that he's only allowed one extra base hit against this reds group; that hit was a double off the bat of Ken Griffey jr.
The wind blowing out is certainly a factor, but with carmona on the hill for one side, the hr ball should not be in play all that much. Harang has had a lot of success against the tribe when hes seen them and hes really limited their power against him. I have two selections for this game:
Clev -106
under 8.5 -115