Quote:
Originally Posted by chipski
tigers at dbacks
who wins ?
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A. Galarraga @ Scherzer
The big right hander for the Tigers has been very impressive this season only allowing 20 hits in 29.1 innings while recording 21 Ks. On the season Galarraga has is recording 6.44 k/9 while allowing 2.76 BB/9. Armondos LD% against is very good and he's proven to be a ground ball pitcher which should be beneficial vs a team like the Dbacks. Here is what the righty throws:
56.3% FB
31.5% sliders
11.9% change ups
I think most of the baseball community is aware of what Max Scherzer brings tot he table. Max is a hard throwing right hander that has struck out over 9.2 batters per 9 innings at every level. The righty is currently striking out 6 batters for every walk he allows and he's allowed just 13 hits in his 14.1 innings of work at the major league level this season. What is concerning is his LD% allowed. Max keeps bringing the fastball and these hitters are catching on to it. as of now, 35.3% of the batted balls against him have been LDs and the rest have been evenly split b/w GB and FB. The youngster has yet to allow a HR, but thats not going to continue if he doesn't start getting some softer contact off the bats of the opposition. Here is what Max has thrown since hes been called up:
75.3% FB
15.1% slider
9.6% change up.
you see a lot of younger pitchers who don't trust their change up at this level. This kid will need to trust his off speed stuff more if he wants to keep his spot through the remainder of the season.
The Tigers have been awful in May going just 3-11, they've also struggled on road games with a total of 9-9.5 where they are 2-13. In their last 7 games Detroit is just 1-6 and they're only scoring 2.6 runs a game over that span. In fact, over their last 7 games the Tigers are only batting .245 with an embarrassing OBP of .279.
Another concern for the Tigers is how poorly their pen has performed on the road. the tigers pen has a whip of 1.638 on the road and an era over 5.10. The relievers have done a good job of not giving up the long ball, but they've walked 37 in 61.2 road innings of work.
Arizona has been pretty bad offensively over their last 7 games as well. AZ has scored just 4.4 runs per game (down from their season average of 5.5) and they're hitting just .243. The difference is, they've managed to win 4 of 7 as they've struggled at the plate.
The AZ pen has been good overall, but they've struggled some of late. The pen was ranked the best in the league just about 9 days ago, now they've fallen just outside the top 10 at #11. the AZ pen has a home era of 3.62 which is very strong and this group will likely be needed with the young kid getting the start this evening.
Statistically, AZ is better in every category than Detroit other than defensive Ks. Detroit doesn't strike out a lot which could pose a problem for strike out artists Max Scherzer.
Over the last week, Magglio, Joyce, Cabrera, and Pudge have all been hitting well despite the fact that the Tigers continue to struggle to get runs this month. On the other side, hudson, drew, young, and ojeda have been the hot bats for the Dback.
Todays umpire is Joe West who has
gone over the total in 7 of his 8 games behind the plate. West has only called 2 games in which the total has ended under 10 runs and those two games totaled 8 and 9 runs respectively.
I was leaning towards the under until i looked at who was behind the plate and now i'll lay off the total seeing as i now want to play the over. West was fair with his totals last season, and things are likely to even out, but with 8 runs being the lowest total in any of his 8 contests, i wont play the under here.
Today im going to back the Tigers at +123 FF. I dont trust the tigers pen against the dbacks pen later in the game, but i think they can get to the rookie today while Galarraga continues to pitch well.
My play for the tigers game:
Det first five +123