Quote:
Originally Posted by St. Andrew
3. Then, take the average of the runs given up (#1) and the opponent's mean runs scored (#2), round to the nearest run, and get a projected game score.
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This step is fatally flawed. Say league average runs scored is 4.5/game. Now say you have team A that scores 6 runs/game playing team B that allows 5.5 runs/game. You're method predicts 5.75 runs.
This is obviously not right. Team A scores 6 versus average pitching. Now they are facing sub-par pitching and they will score less?
What you want to do is something more like this: Expected runs = RS*(RA/LA) = 6*(5.5/4.5) = 7.33
I will bite my tongue on the sample size issues as per your request.