Quote:
Originally Posted by CptPicard
Hello gents,
I notice there has been interesting advanced discussion of betting math on this forum, so let's try asking this question here.. 
I haven't quite been able to find a satisfactory explanation of the mathematics involved for the Kelly formula in the case where a certain bet can produce a win in multiple different, exclusive ways, each of which have their own individual probability and outcome. Just adding up the subcases' kelly stakes doesn't seem like the way to go
Most of the sources I find on the net are "almost there" but not quite, and I'm not quite sure if the multiple-parlay thread on this forum is applicable... is this computable, and how would I go about that?
Another complication of the situation is that the possible distinct bets' possible subcases overlap (meaning that betting X and Y can both win if one of their mutual possibilities is the realized outcome) so the overall optimization is more complicated, but it would be handy to at first at least gain an understanding of how one evaluates the single bet that is divided into subcases... |
Can you clarify what you mean by "a certain bet can produce a win in multiple different, exclusive ways, each of which have their own individual probability and outcome"?
Do you mean for instance, a "bet" on a starting pitcher doing well can "produce" a win with a side, an under, a team total under, a 5-inning under, etc etc? So that all those bets are distinct but related? It seems like you are getting at something like that.