Quote:
Originally Posted by DrunkenLullaby
Assuming that somebody that actually has the disease will always (100%) test positive, I get 1.9627% as the answer to your question.
|
You got it.
This is a classic application of Bayes Theorem:
P(gonorrhea|test positive)
=
P(test positive|gonorrhea)*P(gonorrhea)/
P(test positive)
=
P(test pos|gonorrhea)*P(gonorrhea)/
(P(test pos|gonorrhea)*P(gonorrhea) + P(test pos|no gonorrhea)*P(no gonorrhea))
If we assume a false negative rate of 0 (not specified by the OP) then P(test positive|gonorrhea) = 1. Hence:
=
(1 * 0.1%)/
(1 * 0.1% + 5% * 99.9%) = 1.9627%