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Old 04-29-2008, 02:27 AM   #3 (permalink)
Ganchrow
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrunkenLullaby View Post
Assuming that somebody that actually has the disease will always (100%) test positive, I get 1.9627% as the answer to your question.
You got it.

This is a classic application of Bayes Theorem:

P(gonorrhea|test positive)
= P(test positive|gonorrhea)*P(gonorrhea)/P(test positive)
= P(test pos|gonorrhea)*P(gonorrhea)/(P(test pos|gonorrhea)*P(gonorrhea) + P(test pos|no gonorrhea)*P(no gonorrhea))

If we assume a false negative rate of 0 (not specified by the OP) then P(test positive|gonorrhea) = 1. Hence:

= (1 * 0.1%)/(1 * 0.1% + 5% * 99.9%) = 1.9627%
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