I don't agree with your Serra pick, I find more value in taking GSP to win within the distance which I took at -284 and the last I saw was around -330. At +400 your break even point is Serra winning 20% of the time I think that doesn't offer any value, it is at very best fair value.
My money is on Lutter and Starnes as well, 2 very nice dogs that are extremely capable of winning.
I also wouldn't say betting on favourites is for suckers, I've made plenty of money taking favourites, you just have to be very selective and see through all the hype which at times is easier said than done but it can be done.
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