Quote:
Originally Posted by 3put
Ottawa is the favorite today and the o/u line is 6 -131/121 indicating that the book expect that there will be scored ca. 6.2 goals on average were this game played many times.
That is what I mean by expected total.
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Actually an over/under defines a percentile (which would be the median in the case of a balanced market) not an expectation. A line of 6o-131/6u+121 implies that about 55.62% of non-pushed totals will go over 6 and 44.38% will go under, but does not speak to the goals scored on average. In general the average total should be higher than the median total due to the fact that totals can never be less than 1 but have no theoretical maximum value (in other words, scoring distributions are positively skewed).
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3put
I wondered if the push probabilities and the o/u line in combination was enough to calculate this expected total.
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As I said, you'd first need to fully define the set of outcome likelihoods (which can be approximated with the push probabilities adjusted for the current line -- this is how the HPC estimates these figures). Once you have a set of outcome likelihoods with which you're satisfied, calculating the expected total becomes a trivial matter of taking the dot product of the vector of totals and the vector of associated outcome probabilities.