Quote:
Originally Posted by Munson15
Are you saying that playing for a side with an under 5.5 goals and an over 5 goals would be profitable? Assuming that the juice is less than what %?
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It could be profitable ... it depends on the payout odds offered on each bet (as well as your estimates of the probabilities of the game going over or under 5 -- unless you structure your bets irrespective of these probabilities). The juice is irrelevant.
Assuming you bet to equalize losses if the total lands other than 5 (thus rendering further probability estimates moot), then for a profitable betting opportunity to exist the decimal odds on the over and under must satisfy the following inequality:
or equivalently
| do5 > 74.398% × | du5½ |
| du5½ - 1 |
where d
o5 and d
u5½ correspond to the decimal odds on the over 5 and under 5½, respectively.
So, for example, if the odds on the over were -110, the odds on the under would need to be at least / ( - 74.968%) ≈ for a profitable half-middle to exist.
Conversely, if the odds on the under were -110, the odds on the over would need to be at least 74.968%* / ( - 1) ≈ for a profitable half-middle to exist.