Quote:
Originally Posted by chemist
I know nothing of Excel. In this case a reasonable null hypothesis is that the no-vig ML is the true probability. Computing the probability of M or more successes in N trials of this sort is straightforward but laborious. You could reasonably use the normal approximation and the fact that the variance of the sum of independent events is the sum of the variances of the events. The variance of single binomial trial is p*(1-p).
HTH
|
Thanks Chemist. Is p the no vig ML decimal odds?
So, if I have +150 odds, the variance would be .6*(1-.6)=.24?
If so, what do I do with several such numbers (i.e. .24, .25, .1, .6, etc.)?