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Old 02-14-2008, 06:39 PM   #2 (permalink)
VideoReview
SBR High Roller
 
Join Date: 12-14-07
Location: Canada
Posts: 105
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I should add that up until now what I do is run simulations in Excel based on the odds. For example, I have my list of bets and their odds (e.g. +100 = .50, -150 = .60, etc.) and run at least 10,000 random simulations with these odds (e.g. if a random number is less than the odds, it is considered a win otherwise it is a loss). What this does for me is to determine how likely I would have been to win various ROI amounts purely by chance.

For example, I ran 10,000 random events on the entire population of 55 odds shown in the first post. Here were the results:

To win at least 15.7% (which is what I won), there is a 15.54% chance that it occurred totally randomly. I interpret this to mean that my 15.7% ROI is significant at the 15.54% level (notwithstanding my sample size of 10,000).

Here are other numbers and levels using the odds in the original post:

Win 1% ROI.....46.9% Chance
Win 2% ROI.....44.37% Chance
Win 3% ROI.....41.88% Chance
Win 4% ROI.....39.39% Chance
Win 5% ROI.....37.01% Chance
Win 10% ROI.....25.77% Chance
Win 15% ROI.....16.67% Chance
Win 20% ROI.....10.04% Chance
Win 25% ROI.....5.2% Chance
Win 30% ROI.....2.62% Chance

And finally, to have confidence at the 5% level (95% sure that my results are not by chance notwithstanding my sample size of 10,000)
Win 25.255% ROI.....5% Chance

Therefore, I could say that the null hypothesis (that I was lucky) should be accepted because there is a 15.54% chance that the results were random and the alternative hypothesis (that the algorithm that produced the choices was profitable) should be rejected.

What I am looking for is a mathematical calculation that will save me the time and inaccuracy of these simulations.

Last edited by VideoReview : 02-14-2008 at 06:42 PM. Reason: Clarification
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