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Old 10-10-2007, 05:12 PM   #3 (permalink)
Ganchrow
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HedgeHog View Post
I am intrigued by the Ganch Calculator ...
Thank you, kindly. But allow me to point out that there are currently nine Ganchrow calculators for your calculating pleasure.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HedgeHog View Post
and have been messing around with it the past few days. If I did it right, the following lines would covert to the following money lines. For example a 4 pt favorite would equate to a ML fair value of 192. If you had a 4 pt fav and the ML was -185 then the Fav's ML is a solid play. All NFL lines are considered evenly weighted (i.e. -105 each side or -110 each side depending on your book's juice). I got the results below by putting in the line and then putting 100 in both the fav and dog boxes. I then scrolled to zero to get the corresponding ML. Hopefully Ganch will lend some insight here.
Unfortunately, that's not exactly right. It's pretty close for smaller spreads, (say ≤ 3), and probably not all that far off for modest spreads (≤ 7) but continues getting progressively worse the greater the discrepancy between favorite and under dog. Really, the half-point calculator as it stands is only meant for determining the marginal value of very small numbers of half-points. For large line movements and conversion between larger point spreads and money lines, it shouldn't be use as much more than a rough guide.

As stated in the calculator description:
Important note: The calculator becomes increasingly less accurate the farther away from the starting spread/total it moves. Although the calculator allows you to examine prices more than 1½ points from the initial spread/total, doing so is not generally recommended and such values should be viewed with an abundance of caution.
That said, a money line to spread conversion tool is in the works.
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