[nep1293]

The part about the line moves is for future line moves. So if the game went to 21.5 Temple would receive a boost to 55.88%, if it went down to 20.5 it would be 54.88%. It's not an exact science but it's helpful when the line moves a few points.

For the Temple game, I looked at all the lines of Home Team +21 for the last 5 years. I also look at Home Team +20 and Home Team +22 to make sure there are no wild fluctuations.
21 also includes 21.5, 20 includes 20.5 etc...

Home Team +21 has been 10-7 in the last 5 years for a winning percentage of 58.82%. In the weighted part of my system the record i'm using is 4.4-4.6 for a win % of 48.89%. Last year +21 was 0-2 so that made it a little lopsided. When the percentages between those 2 records are more than 2% off I add them together to get the final %. So Temple ended up with a record of 14.4-11.6 for the the final # of 55.38%. So basically if the game was played 100 times, Temple should cover 55 of them leading to a slight advantage and worth a play.


The worst this system has done was in 2003. The final record was 174-139, 55.59%. There is probably a 1 or 2 percent margin of error because I had to go back and dig up some of the old lines. Last year there was no margin of error and it went 180-138, 56.60%. NFL was fantastic last year, 169-88, 65.76%. I was going 9-5 almost every week