Quote:
Originally Posted by raiders72002
Ganch- That is truly unbelievable. I've never seen a chart so comprehensive and user friendly. It's the most useful thing that I've ever seen on any forum.
What data did you use and from what years?
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Thanks. I appreciate that.
The data used is from Covers.com, and stretches back as far as the data was available for each sport with the exception of NFL. For NFL the data only goes back as far as the 1990-1991 season.
The data is only minimally transformed. I'm not currently adjusting for such changes in regime such as the advent of the NFL 2-point conversion in 1994 or the change in OT rules for NCAAF. I'm basically just following the Stanford Wong methodology, except I equal weight all games that lie the same distance from the target point spread or total.
I plan to improve on the sampling methodology in the very near future. Users retain the option to enter their own probability estimates.