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Originally Posted by Mudcat
I'm interested in people's thought on a couple questions I hear from time-to-time. For now I'll just post the questions and maybe jump in later with my theories.
1) How do you know the difference between a line movement which is a true reaction to "sharp money" and just an adjustment being made by the individual book you happen to be monitoring.
2) Do you have any personal rules regarding line movement patterns and when is the best time to pull the trigger. This can be as it relates to straight betting or also arbing.
What do you people know (or think you know) about line movement????
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I cannot speak to Question #1 because I don't think I'm smart enough to know the difference. I will say that the volatile line differences in some baseball lines that happen 5 to 10 minutes before gametime would seem to me to be some sort of sharp money coming from somewhere. Relatively easy to arb(not huge percentages) if you know where to go for the 2nd leg.
Question #2 seems to be more of a bookie question to me. For some reason, since Canbet has come online with their new site, they seem to be very slow to reacting to the market changes. I can't explain why. So, I have been betting their favorite in baseball for the past couple of weeks and have been getting some good value with them. If I like the favorite, I keep it. If not, I'll try to arb it somewhere for a couple of bucks. Early to mid morning seems to work pretty good for some reason. I wish I knew the answer to why Canbet seems to be reacting slow to the marketplace.
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