It has been my experience that sharp money will move the line a point or more. Public money tends to move the line in half points. I really focus on early line moves (late Sunday night and Monday). These moves will give you a good idea of where the sharp money is going.
In betting the NFL, I like to bet early in the week if I have all the info I need. One reason is because I feel those numbers are softer and if I can get the number I want, I take advantage of it. Another is that early in the week, you can find some discrepancies in the line between different books. By Wednesday, every book has pretty much the same line and they tend to stay that way until gameday, barring an unforeseen occurence.
Just my 2 cents and it has worked great for me so far when it comes to the NFL!
Senator 7
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