I just wanted to share an amusing (and obvious!) case of inside information trading:
I had been betting heavily on a swedish reality show (at odds +500) on one of the remaining two candidates (at Betfair)
I was watching both the market and the final live tv show where the winner would be announced shortly. You can vote up until just a few minutes before they announce the winner.
Candidate A (my bet) was trading initially at +100 but went slowly lower during the show, was trading around -150 when there was 15 minutes left and then I started to sell more and more of my position.
They announced "no more votes". Still at -150, I was selling a bit more.
"We are now counting the votes".
Then suddenly the market went down very quickly to -400! I instinctively clicked the first click to sell the remaining 60% of my position at what I considered a dream price, basically locking in most of my win.
Then I paused. What was really going on?
The market continued to drop at high volume. -600. -800.
Looking closer, I saw there were no sellers at all, only byers at larger volumes!
A few minutes later they announced candiate A as the winner.
