Quote:
Originally Posted by tacomax
There is no certainty that Martingale will make you a winner.
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Absolutely true. And in the long run it's just as negative EV as any other way of structuring your bets.
But if the challenge is about whether one will do better than break even in one session, and it is at even money, you don't need certainty for it to be a good bet.
So i'm just trying to figure out the "trick." Does "your returns will be statistically no better than break even" mean something other than winning or losing the session? Is it intended to be something other than an even money bet?
If the challenge was "I can prove mathematically that your strategy has a long run negative EV," I know what side I'd want to be on. But this is different. This is "Let's meet at a craps table in Vegas, and I bet you'll break even or lose." Surely a Martingale approach can give you a better than 50% chance of winning a short run session like that.