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Old 03-24-2007, 05:01 PM   #8 (permalink)
Ganchrow
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Default Saturday, March 24th -- Regional Finals

So for those players still in contention and with EVs of at least $5, these are are the scenarios based on each of today's 4 possible outcome:

So for example, as far as this contest goes, nasdaq888 should be hoping for a Kansas and Ohio St victories. If this occurs his EV will be $83.67 and he'll have a 5.13% probability for taking 1st. This is also the best outcome for MAB. who after Kansas and Ohio St victories would have a position woryh $961.33 with a 92.28% probability of 1st place.

Code:
--Kansas and Memphis in Final Four 24.90%--
Player    	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	EV $
MAB            	 87.78%	  7.91%	  3.51%	  0.80%	 $936.60
Wade Wright    	  0.00%	 35.68%	 30.27%	 17.09%	 $322.00
eboppterp      	  0.00%	 20.14%	  8.36%	 10.39%	 $156.32
TboneJones     	  3.87%	 12.47%	  7.77%	 12.69%	 $149.55
dmariner       	  0.19%	 10.08%	 14.40%	 20.31%	 $125.91
barn8306       	  3.99%	  4.05%	  6.28%	  3.45%	  $86.44
nasdaq888      	  3.27%	  2.23%	  2.46%	  2.53%	  $56.01
88159          	  0.00%	  1.03%	  6.21%	  8.56%	  $33.39
mathewvick     	  0.66%	  2.59%	  0.52%	  1.27%	  $24.94
sonnythekid    	  0.00%	  0.00%	  6.08%	  4.87%	  $23.11
spliff         	  0.00%	  2.33%	  1.44%	  2.03%	  $20.32
tbanaheimfan   	  0.00%	  0.44%	  3.86%	  3.14%	  $17.38
36crazyfists   	  0.00%	  0.00%	  3.48%	  0.18%	  $10.61
DoctorJ        	  0.00%	  0.00%	  3.05%	  0.00%	   $9.15
Nightwolfkicksa	  0.00%	  0.00%	  0.24%	  5.98%	   $6.69
batlak         	  0.24%	  0.28%	  0.38%	  0.56%	   $5.77

--Kansas and Ohio St in Final Four 30.69%--
Player    	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	EV $
MAB            	 92.28%	  5.45%	  1.78%	  0.49%	 $961.33
Wade Wright    	  0.00%	 33.37%	 39.85%	 17.72%	 $337.53
eboppterp      	  0.00%	 27.35%	  6.39%	  3.63%	 $186.91
dmariner       	  0.00%	 10.09%	 14.76%	 25.11%	 $129.92
TboneJones     	  0.00%	 11.07%	  7.04%	 11.01%	  $98.56
nasdaq888      	  5.13%	  3.64%	  2.92%	  1.73%	  $83.67
barn8306       	  2.59%	  2.07%	  3.05%	  2.97%	  $50.42
88159          	  0.00%	  1.98%	  8.12%	  8.59%	  $44.86
spliff         	  0.00%	  2.76%	  1.71%	  3.92%	  $25.62
DoctorJ        	  0.00%	  0.00%	  6.25%	  0.95%	  $19.71
36crazyfists   	  0.00%	  0.00%	  2.14%	  3.31%	   $9.72
mathewvick     	  0.00%	  0.73%	  0.85%	  1.52%	   $8.43
tomc2356       	  0.00%	  0.84%	  0.14%	  0.41%	   $5.88
Nightwolfkicksa	  0.00%	  0.00%	  0.00%	  5.66%	   $5.66
Shooter        	  0.00%	  0.00%	  1.68%	  0.00%	   $5.04

--UCLA and Memphis in Final Four 19.90%--
Player    	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	EV $
MAB            	 89.86%	  7.34%	  2.80%	  0.00%	 $951.02
Wade Wright    	  0.00%	 36.06%	 33.85%	 13.72%	 $331.64
eboppterp      	  0.00%	 29.91%	 14.92%	 13.48%	 $237.66
TboneJones     	  3.87%	  8.39%	  5.48%	 11.68%	 $117.17
barn8306       	  3.67%	  5.62%	  7.85%	  1.85%	  $95.90
dmariner       	  0.25%	  5.23%	  6.15%	 19.13%	  $71.47
nasdaq888      	  2.18%	  1.91%	  2.31%	  2.44%	  $42.61
sonnythekid    	  0.00%	  0.00%	  7.89%	  6.32%	  $29.99
88159          	  0.00%	  0.00%	  4.72%	 10.87%	  $25.04
mathewvick     	  0.00%	  2.42%	  1.98%	  2.42%	  $22.90
tomc2356       	  0.00%	  1.79%	  0.62%	  0.97%	  $13.59
tbanaheimfan   	  0.00%	  0.00%	  2.78%	  3.85%	  $12.21
Shooter        	  0.00%	  0.00%	  3.33%	  0.00%	   $9.98
36crazyfists   	  0.00%	  0.00%	  2.46%	  2.56%	   $9.96
batlak         	  0.17%	  0.64%	  0.74%	  0.60%	   $8.37

--UCLA and Ohio St in Final Four 24.51%--
Player    	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	EV $
MAB            	 87.89%	  8.08%	  2.95%	  1.08%	 $937.34
Wade Wright    	  0.00%	 56.88%	 14.32%	 12.24%	 $396.46
TboneJones     	  5.22%	  8.04%	  7.01%	  8.54%	 $130.05
dmariner       	  0.26%	 10.06%	 17.13%	 14.07%	 $128.42
barn8306       	  2.87%	  4.75%	  6.87%	  2.86%	  $80.67
eboppterp      	  0.00%	  0.00%	 12.30%	 12.00%	  $48.92
nasdaq888      	  2.54%	  3.00%	  0.92%	  2.02%	  $48.19
mathewvick     	  0.89%	  3.50%	  2.22%	  2.68%	  $39.20
sonnythekid    	  0.00%	  0.00%	  7.16%	  6.16%	  $27.63
88159          	  0.00%	  1.40%	  3.47%	  6.88%	  $25.66
tbanaheimfan   	  0.00%	  0.60%	  5.21%	  4.24%	  $23.45
DoctorJ        	  0.00%	  0.00%	  7.11%	  1.08%	  $22.42
36crazyfists   	  0.00%	  0.00%	  5.77%	  4.00%	  $21.32
tomc2356       	  0.00%	  1.86%	  0.65%	  1.01%	  $14.14
batlak         	  0.32%	  0.81%	  0.93%	  0.89%	  $11.77
Nightwolfkicksa	  0.00%	  0.00%	  0.32%	  8.16%	   $9.12
spliff         	  0.00%	  0.00%	  1.94%	  0.00%	   $5.83
__________________

Last edited by Ganchrow; 03-24-2007 at 05:22 PM.. Reason: "today's" outcomes not "tomorrow's"
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