Even though player
spliff currently "only" inhabits 4
th place with 43 correct picks and 206 points (versus 44 correct and 222, 219, and 209 points respectively for current 1
st through 3
rd place tenants, Wade Wright, MAB, and dmariner) he has now pulled into the lead as player most likely to take 1
st (32.69% probability). His picks now also have the greatest expected value among the field at $539.74 (next would be $396.65 for Wade Wright).
(One might find it interesting to note that although dmariner is currently in 3
rd place, his probability of finishing in 1
st through 4
th places are only 0.17%, 0.35%, 0.57%, 4.49%, respectively, implying a rather paltry EV of $10.03. Contrast that with Orange, currently in 40
th place with an EV of $11.50.)
Code:
Player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th EV $
-------------------------------------------------------
spliff 32.69% 25.48% 16.17% 11.44% $539.74
Wade Wright 27.05% 13.37% 8.93% 19.08% $396.65
MAB 13.03% 19.37% 20.77% 11.61% $320.42
eboppterp 7.18% 12.44% 12.92% 11.79% $196.98
ryeguy 4.70% 13.67% 14.07% 3.48% $174.76
Mulinello 4.52% 6.37% 1.94% 0.35% $89.57
tbanaheimfan 2.91% 1.56% 6.43% 9.07% $66.81
nasdaq888 3.05% 2.78% 3.15% 2.31% $58.97
barn8306 2.51% 2.26% 5.34% 3.36% $58.03
kissthecup 2.13% 0.41% 2.20% 1.57% $31.90
Ira Wilton 0.00% 0.15% 3.68% 12.45% $24.41
Orange* 0.00% 0.92% 1.39% 1.80% $11.50
dmariner 0.17% 0.35% 0.57% 4.49% $10.03
TboneJones 0.05% 0.45% 0.59% 3.11% $8.17
BuddyBear 0.00% 0.15% 1.43% 2.35% $7.56
Razz 0.00% 0.23% 0.23% 0.27% $2.37
DoctorJ 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.54% $0.54
fitchjr1 0.00% 0.03% 0.10% 0.02% $0.49
88159 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.38% $0.38
scavsiu8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% $0.23
bearwins1 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.04% $0.16
Crayzee 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.07% $0.13
sonnythekid 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.13% $0.13
tomc2356 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% $0.04
Shooter 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% $0.02
*SBR Employee
See original analysis thread
here.