[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by betso

Ganchrow or anyone else, could you please explain to me the usage of the Poisson, Reverse Bet and Round Robin Calculators?

I am familiar with the Poisson distribution for random numbers, but not really how it is being used in a practical betting context. Thanks.

One variable Poisson calculator:
Let's say a book is offering up a prop bet on an event you to believe to be Poisson -- let's say the number of 3-point attempts made by the Knicks in a particular game. The line 15.5o -105 15.5u -115.

You think that the based on historical averages the expected number of Knicks 3pt attempts is actually 15.2. Is th under bet positive expectation?

Solution:

1. Select "One Variable" radio button
2. Enter 15.2 into "Expected Average" text box
3. Enter 15.5 into "Proposition" text box
4. Click "Calculate"
5. We see that the probability of hitting the under ("Less than 15½") is 54.7611%, corresponding to a fair money line of -121.05
6. Since you'd only be laying -115 on the bet your edge would be positive. (How positive? Your edge would be 54.7611% * 100/115 - 45.2389% = 2.3794%)

Two variable Poisson calculator:
Let's say a book is offering up a prop bet on a combination of events, each one of which you to believe to be Poisson and independent -- let's say the number of 3-point attempts made by the Knicks in a particular game versus the number of 3-point attempts made by the Nets in a different game. The line line is Nets -1½ -110, Knicks +1½ -110.

You think that the based on historical averages the expected number of Knicks 3pt attempts is 15.2, and the expected number of Nets 3pt attempts is 17.0. Is Nets -1½ positive expectation?

Solution:

1. Select "Two Variable" radio button
2. Enter 15.2 into "Event A Expectation" text box
3. Enter 1.5 into "Spread" text box
4. Enter 17.0 into "Event B Expectation" text box
5. Click "Calculate"
6. We see that the probability of hitting the Nets -1½ ("A +1½ < B") is 52.0527%, corresponding to a fair money line of -108.56
7. Since you'd have to lay -110 on the bet your edge would be negative. (How negative? Your edge would be 52.0527% * 100/110 - 47.9473% = -0.6267%)

The reverse bet and round robin calculators respectively calculate reverse bet and round-robin risk, max win, and situational win/loss amounts given a notional bet amount, underlying lines, and outcomes.