These are estimated SBR contest win percentages given various national champions. The first four numerical columns represent probabilities of finishing in 1st through 4th places respectively. The final column represents the current expected value of the given position. In other words, this is how much a risk neutral would theoretically be willing for the player's bracket entry.
Code:
Player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th $EV
Champ Prob
--ANY 100.00%--
Wade Wright 59.36% 17.48% 8.03% 4.74% $727.32
MAB 16.61% 16.88% 13.73% 11.09% $319.69
Mulinello 4.58% 10.26% 4.63% 4.01% $125.28
spliff 3.00% 2.49% 1.86% 2.04% $52.57
TboneJones 2.54% 3.80% 4.78% 5.15% $67.67
dmariner 0.83% 1.90% 4.94% 6.09% $40.65
BuddyBear 0.74% 14.16% 9.20% 8.34% $128.32
Ira Wilton 0.21% 3.35% 4.76% 5.86% $42.34
playaction 0.00% 10.20% 11.20% 2.89% $97.70
durito 0.00% 0.00% 6.21% 7.76% $26.38
--Butler(5) 1.08%--
Wade Wright 63.96% 16.12% 6.55% 4.54% $760.52
MAB 17.48% 21.97% 15.56% 11.74% $364.99
spliff 3.40% 3.09% 2.08% 1.75% $60.46
Mulinello 2.52% 7.43% 3.45% 1.85% $81.91
TboneJones 2.43% 4.51% 5.08% 5.03% $71.64
ryeguy 2.02% 4.01% 2.92% 4.11% $57.15
dmariner 1.91% 2.42% 8.89% 8.49% $68.74
tomc2356 0.00% 0.00% 7.25% 8.98% $30.72
Ira Wilton 0.00% 4.93% 5.00% 6.15% $50.72
playaction 0.00% 4.10% 6.69% 5.29% $49.95
begolf25 0.00% 0.29% 4.34% 4.26% $19.05
BuddyBear 0.00% 18.91% 10.95% 7.48% $153.75
--Florida(1) 22.02%--
Wade Wright 63.06% 19.86% 7.29% 4.54% $776.18
MAB 20.62% 25.27% 20.42% 11.97% $431.08
spliff 4.98% 4.45% 3.06% 2.54% $88.19
eboppterp 4.15% 3.00% 6.62% 4.36% $83.77
BuddyBear 3.37% 27.31% 16.02% 6.06% $251.71
88159 0.00% 1.64% 2.14% 5.51% $21.75
Ira Wilton 0.00% 4.47% 7.16% 9.79% $58.10
pags11 0.00% 0.00% 4.47% 2.24% $15.65
dmariner 0.00% 0.97% 6.06% 7.36% $31.34
--Georgetown(2) 9.29%--
MAB 65.10% 16.03% 13.00% 4.91% $791.11
Wade Wright 32.02% 45.34% 11.35% 5.00% $631.34
coasty163 1.28% 3.58% 6.95% 9.53% $64.62
Razz 0.69% 1.51% 4.04% 3.81% $31.94
scavsiu8 0.35% 2.45% 4.82% 5.57% $38.27
tomc2356 0.00% 0.41% 3.39% 12.17% $24.82
Pegasus 0.00% 1.46% 2.49% 6.74% $22.95
Shooter 0.00% 0.00% 4.39% 3.95% $17.11
dmariner 0.00% 1.03% 1.41% 6.19% $16.63
BuddyBear 0.00% 15.36% 20.58% 11.92% $165.85
--Kansas(1) 13.84%--
Wade Wright 53.91% 15.25% 9.25% 4.30% $662.60
MAB 13.26% 16.13% 16.98% 12.59% $292.95
barn8306 8.98% 7.65% 7.37% 6.70% $164.54
ryeguy 5.52% 5.65% 6.91% 6.58% $116.43
TboneJones 5.44% 10.43% 7.54% 8.59% $148.13
tbanaheimfan 4.05% 3.27% 5.83% 5.58% $83.24
spliff 3.68% 3.69% 1.98% 1.72% $66.62
Mulinello 2.13% 3.83% 2.84% 2.98% $55.77
dmariner 1.57% 1.55% 6.40% 5.20% $49.43
woodyb97 0.00% 6.38% 2.05% 2.38% $46.83
Ira Wilton 0.00% 6.04% 7.76% 6.09% $65.63
BuddyBear 0.00% 15.13% 7.44% 5.76% $118.86
--Memphis(2) 4.93%--
Wade Wright 32.79% 17.15% 10.10% 8.73% $469.89
MAB 15.78% 19.13% 19.18% 14.30% $344.46
sonnythekid 15.37% 6.02% 5.86% 8.41% $215.84
barn8306 8.33% 5.78% 6.52% 8.26% $145.85
eboppterp 7.32% 4.39% 9.00% 8.51% $135.13
TboneJones 6.75% 12.23% 11.97% 10.46% $187.30
spliff 5.36% 3.43% 1.56% 1.49% $80.28
Timolyn 1.20% 5.80% 3.36% 4.94% $61.81
dmariner 1.17% 6.35% 10.43% 5.08% $86.21
Ira Wilton 0.24% 0.93% 4.37% 2.60% $23.73
BuddyBear 0.00% 6.23% 2.45% 4.25% $49.00
--North Carolina(1) 13.54%--
Wade Wright 58.24% 14.88% 6.40% 5.99% $696.88
MAB 12.95% 19.04% 14.03% 14.93% $300.76
TboneJones 11.59% 13.88% 13.03% 11.03% $249.32
Mulinello 7.02% 4.19% 3.91% 2.39% $109.50
nasdaq888 2.10% 4.22% 2.46% 3.08% $56.80
dmariner 0.70% 3.92% 9.90% 8.55% $68.76
topher79 0.46% 3.81% 2.10% 3.78% $37.46
Ira Wilton 0.00% 5.54% 6.91% 5.92% $59.89
begolf25 0.00% 1.45% 7.75% 3.04% $34.96
BuddyBear 0.00% 16.21% 7.42% 7.94% $127.48
--Ohio St(1) 9.75%--
Wade Wright 39.39% 17.95% 19.32% 10.05% $569.65
MAB 24.88% 26.85% 17.31% 14.85% $476.71
dmariner 16.98% 17.57% 27.29% 13.25% $370.37
Ira Wilton 5.78% 19.48% 12.05% 11.71% $222.49
spliff 5.22% 4.31% 2.14% 3.78% $88.29
Timolyn 2.15% 3.38% 4.91% 4.84% $61.37
ryeguy 0.92% 4.30% 3.36% 2.37% $47.42
--Oregon(3) 2.88%--
nasdaq888 40.40% 23.26% 20.04% 5.42% $609.03
Wade Wright 20.45% 15.48% 21.06% 12.54% $373.12
Mulinello 20.11% 21.31% 6.44% 8.53% $356.78
MAB 11.09% 17.69% 18.73% 15.24% $288.48
barn8306 3.67% 6.36% 8.93% 8.08% $109.74
dmariner 0.06% 2.54% 3.78% 9.13% $36.26
playaction 0.00% 1.17% 2.34% 6.87% $20.89
--Pittsburgh(3) 2.88%--
sonnythekid 59.37% 27.32% 11.42% 1.62% $793.55
Wade Wright 37.32% 25.59% 6.54% 8.20% $554.61
Mulinello 3.15% 5.15% 7.55% 4.80% $89.85
spliff 0.15% 3.05% 2.95% 2.06% $30.69
Timolyn 0.00% 19.35% 26.81% 17.96% $214.50
MAB 0.00% 6.36% 14.18% 16.66% $97.39
Ira Wilton 0.00% 1.69% 5.71% 7.02% $34.28
TboneJones 0.00% 2.07% 5.02% 8.34% $35.83
topher79 0.00% 0.05% 5.06% 3.19% $18.66
BuddyBear 0.00% 6.04% 6.52% 7.14% $62.95
--Southern Cal(5) 1.43%--
Wade Wright 55.64% 14.22% 11.09% 7.33% $682.31
spliff 35.22% 31.71% 16.68% 9.14% $601.64
Mulinello 3.86% 4.32% 2.75% 1.89% $74.68
barn8306 1.60% 4.01% 2.41% 4.65% $51.96
MAB 1.31% 18.05% 21.52% 15.10% $201.07
dmariner 0.88% 3.28% 3.42% 18.70% $57.40
Ira Wilton 0.00% 5.91% 6.47% 5.02% $59.89
begolf25 0.00% 1.75% 5.42% 6.03% $32.80
BuddyBear 0.00% 8.47% 8.82% 8.26% $85.51
--Southern Illinois(4) 1.34%--
Wade Wright 73.66% 18.87% 4.14% 2.10% $864.38
Mulinello 14.01% 23.39% 11.32% 7.00% $321.41
nasdaq888 4.85% 8.96% 14.05% 12.79% $157.24
MAB 4.38% 16.23% 17.58% 14.85% $208.79
TboneJones 0.51% 2.45% 3.07% 5.67% $34.63
Ira Wilton 0.00% 3.68% 3.97% 5.69% $39.64
awol256 0.00% 1.12% 2.91% 7.47% $22.91
playaction 0.00% 4.63% 12.11% 4.55% $68.64
BuddyBear 0.00% 10.14% 10.45% 9.05% $101.24
--Tennessee(5) 2.19%--
Wade Wright 44.94% 16.60% 18.02% 9.16% $612.24
Dead Money 36.94% 22.00% 20.28% 11.27% $573.49
MAB 7.21% 21.33% 21.84% 16.09% $281.63
Mulinello 5.78% 7.46% 3.97% 2.91% $117.37
barn8306 1.26% 3.99% 6.76% 5.52% $62.34
dmariner 0.45% 0.22% 0.61% 9.58% $17.20
Ira Wilton 0.00% 0.00% 1.98% 11.49% $17.44
BuddyBear 0.00% 20.87% 13.85% 12.84% $179.65
--Texas A&M(3) 6.33%--
Wade Wright 88.95% 5.94% 2.37% 1.42% $933.71
Mulinello 4.85% 31.19% 11.60% 6.23% $276.66
dmariner 3.01% 2.65% 3.06% 6.92% $62.08
MAB 0.78% 2.14% 2.44% 3.36% $31.36
thealgrod 0.00% 10.44% 24.79% 14.05% $151.06
durito 0.00% 0.00% 9.01% 28.90% $55.94
playaction 0.00% 36.62% 32.28% 17.45% $334.00
BuddyBear 0.00% 7.06% 4.52% 3.66% $59.57
begolf25 0.00% 0.00% 5.50% 4.32% $20.80
--UCLA(2) 7.36%--
Wade Wright 62.14% 9.98% 3.96% 5.91% $699.07
MAB 14.87% 8.90% 16.43% 11.14% $262.50
mathewvick 7.42% 14.01% 21.35% 15.49% $237.79
tomc2356 5.84% 28.01% 16.65% 8.83% $285.18
batlak 2.45% 2.50% 5.22% 5.97% $61.09
dmariner 0.00% 6.34% 12.75% 21.01% $97.32
begolf25 0.00% 6.95% 9.68% 9.75% $80.51
BuddyBear 0.00% 11.45% 4.87% 9.64% $92.96
--UNLV(7) 1.14%--
kissthecup 71.67% 27.81% 0.52% 0.00% $885.10
Wade Wright 28.26% 66.88% 4.62% 0.24% $697.94
Mulinello 0.08% 0.53% 3.09% 3.72% $16.94
Timolyn 0.00% 0.00% 0.31% 2.37% $3.32
Crayzee 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.32% $6.32
MAB 0.00% 0.00% 15.50% 13.94% $60.43
Ira Wilton 0.00% 0.00% 11.57% 12.58% $47.30
playaction 0.00% 0.00% 1.68% 5.25% $10.28
TboneJones 0.00% 1.21% 5.06% 5.29% $27.72
ryeguy 0.00% 1.60% 10.00% 5.98% $45.58
begolf25 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 10.28% $12.34
BuddyBear 0.00% 0.00% 38.65% 19.12% $135.06
--Vanderbilt(6) 1.08%--
Wade Wright 55.71% 17.84% 7.02% 4.43% $689.65
Mulinello 15.53% 9.36% 5.54% 3.68% $231.70
MAB 10.43% 19.87% 13.67% 17.23% $281.75
eboppterp 7.53% 5.95% 7.58% 9.81% $143.59
ryeguy 2.97% 16.87% 8.21% 7.98% $163.58
tbanaheimfan 2.16% 2.04% 4.94% 7.34% $56.00
dmariner 0.94% 3.68% 12.15% 8.33% $76.21
Ira Wilton 0.00% 3.45% 8.25% 5.16% $50.60
BuddyBear 0.00% 11.13% 11.78% 6.30% $108.42
begolf25 0.00% 1.26% 4.40% 6.71% $27.46
Note:
- Percentages are based solely on Pinnacle money lines current at about 8AM EDT Monday morning and ignore specific match-up dependent criteria.
- Technically speaking, the "probabilities" are actually the share of the given place the player expects (which in most cases this will be very close to the probability). This means that if two player had locked up ties for first and second places, each player's "share" of first place would be 50% as would each player's share of seconds place. In this manner the "probability" for any given scenario will all sum to 100%.
- The final column represents the current expected value or "fair price" of the given position. In other words, this is the maximum dollar amount a risk neutral individual would theoretically be willing for the player's bracket entry.
- Because no Pinnacle money were available for national semi-final results, all 16 remaining schools were judged equally probable of winning that round should they make it that far. This means that stronger teams will be judged with relatively too low a conditional probability of making the finals, and relatively too high a conditional probability of winning the finals.