Anything can happen. To bring this back on topic: A little under 2/3rds of the time, Rudy or John gets the Republican nod. For the Democratic side, it's about 85%. A different Democrat isn't much stronger or weaker, but there's little question that Rudy and John are stronger Republicans than Field would be. So let's say that they're 55% to win if they get the nod and other Reps are 35% to reconcile with party odds. So the odds of someone else are about (quick math only) are 12% from the Republican side and 8% from the Democratic side, so about 20% overall.
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