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Originally Posted by Dark Horse
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying.
The NFC +100 no juice bet means I'm averaging out around -110 for the hedge, but I'm getting a real shot at winning both sides (with AFC down to -0.5).
Wouldn't be one teased bet, but a larger number for first leg, until risk on NFC bet was matched. Basically, I would get a hugely improved line for bets I would bet anyway. Losers would be tossed out, and winners go on until risk on NFC bet was matched.
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It's difficult to explain this qualitatively and much easier to explain quantitatively. But before we can do this we'd need to assign probabilities to the teaser. For the sake of simplicitly we can just assume we're dealing with a one-team teaser priced equivalently as a two-team teaser -- this would be decimal odds of 1.3817, which is just the square root of 1.9091. Or we can just say we're taking the AFC on the money line, which would be equivalent to AFC -½.
So I'll ask you ... assuming that AFC -6½ wins with probability 51.18%, how often would you expect AFC -½ to win? (Paying at odds of 1.3817, it would need to be lower than 70.37% in order for the juice to be higher than on the AFC -6 single. Based on the Pinnacle money line of-250/+230, we'd expect AFC -½ to win with probability 70.21%.)