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Originally Posted by Dark Horse
If the object is to get out of the NFC +6 bet
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Technically speaking, the object is to maximize expected utility -- this may or may not entail getting out of some or all of the NFC +6 bet.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dark Horse
I would consider an open teaser strategy. If 25% of bankroll is at risk on the Superbowl bet, take five or ten games you would have bet anyway, but now as the first leg of a number of open teasers; the second leg for each is the Superbowl (now down to AFC -0.5).
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Unless the implicit juice in teasing from the 6½ to the ½ is less than the juice on the straight AFC -6 bet (which there may or may not be depending on what the Greek charges for the teaser), then this would necessarily be more expensive than and would result in a riskier outcome than (by creating the large middle) what could be achieved with some combination of the two candidate hedges. In other words, it would necessarily be suboptimal for a player with log preferences.
Of course of it turned out that the teased bet were cheaper (in terms of vig) than either of the unteased bets, then the tease may well be the right play.