I don't get what you're trying to say.
Let's say Mr. X has a bankroll of $4,000
He bet 25% or $1,000 at +100 odds on NFC +6
This turned out to be a bad bet. To safely hedge at AFC -6 he must lay -120.
So if Mr. X bets $1090 on AFC -6, he would get back $908
If AFC win by 7 or more, would lose $1000-$908= $92
If AFC wins by 6, both bets push
If NFC wins SU or loses by 5 or fewer, would lose $1090-$1000=$90
So MR. X is going to lose about 90/4000=2.25% of bankroll.
What are you trying to optimize here? I'm so not with the program.
Last edited by Art Vandeleigh : 01-24-2007 at 02:07 PM.
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