View Single Post
Old 01-24-2007, 02:04 PM   #4 (permalink)
Art Vandeleigh
SBR Sharp
 
Art Vandeleigh's Avatar
 
Join Date: 12-31-06
Posts: 417
Art Vandeleigh is online now
Default

I don't get what you're trying to say.

Let's say Mr. X has a bankroll of $4,000

He bet 25% or $1,000 at +100 odds on NFC +6

This turned out to be a bad bet. To safely hedge at AFC -6 he must lay -120.

So if Mr. X bets $1090 on AFC -6, he would get back $908

If AFC win by 7 or more, would lose $1000-$908= $92
If AFC wins by 6, both bets push
If NFC wins SU or loses by 5 or fewer, would lose $1090-$1000=$90

So MR. X is going to lose about 90/4000=2.25% of bankroll.

What are you trying to optimize here? I'm so not with the program.

Last edited by Art Vandeleigh : 01-24-2007 at 02:07 PM.
Reply With Quote