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Join Date: 08-28-05
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Estimated NBA Over/Under Push Frequencies
For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.
| Total | N | Freq. | | 170 | 548 | 2.37% | | 171 | 713 | 3.51% | | 172 | 869 | 2.53% | | 173 | 1,031 | 2.52% | | 174 | 1,202 | 2.25% | | 175 | 1,375 | 2.69% | | 176 | 1,563 | 2.18% | | 177 | 1,760 | 2.44% | | 178 | 1,960 | 2.40% | | 179 | 2,187 | 2.70% | | 180 | 2,348 | 2.21% | | 181 | 2,586 | 2.09% | | 182 | 2,819 | 3.23% | | 183 | 3,086 | 2.79% | | 184 | 3,379 | 2.78% | | 185 | 3,626 | 2.48% | | 186 | 3,842 | 2.19% | | 187 | 4,005 | 2.22% | | 188 | 4,123 | 2.38% | | 189 | 4,322 | 2.31% | | 190 | 4,432 | 1.96% | | 191 | 4,570 | 2.23% | | 192 | 4,600 | 2.33% | | 193 | 4,589 | 2.31% | | 194 | 4,580 | 2.16% | | 195 | 4,519 | 2.43% | | 196 | 4,432 | 2.62% | | 197 | 4,293 | 2.63% | | 198 | 4,152 | 1.93% | | 199 | 4,127 | 2.42% | | 200 | 4,029 | 2.08% | | 201 | 3,917 | 1.79% | | 202 | 3,814 | 2.60% | | 203 | 3,715 | 2.45% | | 204 | 3,636 | 2.50% | | 205 | 3,514 | 2.19% | | 206 | 3,372 | 2.28% | | 207 | 3,168 | 2.37% | | 208 | 2,943 | 2.14% | | 209 | 2,723 | 2.13% | | 210 | 2,531 | 2.69% | | 211 | 2,292 | 2.14% | | 212 | 2,087 | 2.30% | | 213 | 1,926 | 2.02% | | 214 | 1,741 | 1.78% | | 215 | 1,598 | 2.00% | | 216 | 1,447 | 1.80% | | 217 | 1,261 | 2.14% | | 218 | 1,134 | 2.03% | | 219 | 986 | 1.52% | | 220 | 884 | 2.60% | | 221 | 779 | 2.05% | | 222 | 685 | 1.46% | | 223 | 598 | 2.34% | | 224 | 522 | 3.07% | | Methodology:- All NBA regular season final scores and closing over/unders (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 17th of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (18,368 games in total) for various total point scores.
- The push frequency for a given over/under was determined by the percentage of games with an over/under within 4 points of the over/under in question ending with a total point score equal to that over/under. For example, the push frequency of an over/under of 200 was determined from all games with a closing over/unders between 196 and 204.
- This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
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