11-18-2006, 11:38 PM
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: 08-28-05
Location: Forest Hills, NY, Home of the Blitzkrieg Bop
Posts: 4,631
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Estimated NBA ATS Push Frequencies
For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.
| Spread | N | Freq. | | 1 | 3,413 | 2.05% | | 2 | 3,839 | 4.04% | | 3 | 4,631 | 3.91% | | 4 | 4,925 | 3.51% | | 5 | 4,829 | 4.47% | | 6 | 4,455 | 4.15% | | 7 | 3,978 | 4.40% | | 8 | 3,429 | 4.37% | | 9 | 2,983 | 5.20% | | 10 | 2,486 | 4.26% | | 11 | 1,884 | 3.98% | | 12 | 1,457 | 3.43% | | 13 | 1,168 | 3.94% | | 14 | 880 | 3.98% | | 15 | 612 | 4.41% | | 16 | 388 | 6.19% | | 17 | 221 | 4.07% | | 18 | 132 | 2.27% | | 19 | 52 | 5.77% | Methodology:- All NBA regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 17th of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (18,368 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
- The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 1 point of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 2 and 4.
- This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
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