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Old 11-18-2006, 11:38 PM   #1 (permalink)
Ganchrow
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Default Estimated NBA ATS Push Frequencies

For updated data please see my Half-Point Calculator.

Spread N Freq.
1 3,413 2.05%
2 3,839 4.04%
3 4,631 3.91%
4 4,925 3.51%
5 4,829 4.47%
6 4,455 4.15%
7 3,978 4.40%
8 3,429 4.37%
9 2,983 5.20%
10 2,486 4.26%
11 1,884 3.98%
12 1,457 3.43%
13 1,168 3.94%
14 880 3.98%
15 612 4.41%
16 388 6.19%
17 221 4.07%
18 132 2.27%
19 52 5.77%

Methodology:
  • All NBA regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from http://www.covers.com/) from the 1990/1 season through November 17th of the 2006/7 season were analyzed (18,368 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.
  • The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 1 point of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 2 and 4.
  • This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting.
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