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Location: Michigan International Speedway
Time: Sunday 1:00PM EST / 12:00PM CST / 10:00PM PST
2005 Pole Winner: Ryan Newman #12
2005 Winner: Greg Biffle #16

Roberts: Michigan preview

Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Congrats go out to Denny Hamlin for winnng last week’s race at Pocono. He has been inching closer and closer each week, espcially the last 5 races where he has started in the top 10 and finished in the top 15 in all those races. Maybe the best thing of all about Hamlin winning is that it gave the betting public a chance to cash in on a driver that was paying out higher than 12-to-1. Hamlin could have been bet at 25 or 30 to 1, and then after he won the pole, you still could have gotten around 20 to 1.

This is the second year in a row that a rookie has won the Pocono race, which is maybe more telling than at first glance. The first thought being that the rookies who have won were both with great organizations. Hamlin had a car that I swore had Tony Stewart’s orange seeping through the FedEx logo.

That car was tight. The new guys also probably come into Pocono with a whole new outlook on the race because they have never drove on the track. The older drivers, or basically anyone who had ever had the experience of downshifting, may come in with the wrong outlook. Whatever the case may be, be sure to file this race away into your data bank because they will be back in a few weeks for the second race of the year there.

This week they are off to Michigan for the first of two races they have this year. For the benefit of those looking for some edge when handicapping the race, you need to review the Las Vegas and California races from earlier this year. California and Michigan are almost identical 2 mile flat tracks that were both built by Roger Penske. Las Vegas fits the mold because of the banking and width of the track, despite being a half a mile shorter in distance.

In those two races, the second and third of the season, all you need to do is look at the first 4 places in each race. First and second were flip-flopped in each race. In reality, Matt Kenseth should have won both races since he had a monstrous lead at Vegas. Kenseth dominated both races late. Jimmie Johnson managed to steal a win away in Vegas because of a late caution that allowed him to eliminate the giant lead Kenseth had.

Sitting in fourth place is the master of the mile-and-a-half, high-banked tracks, Kasey Kahne. He has 3 wins this year and they are all nearly identical tracks, at California and Las Vegas, Kahne finished fourth in both.

What is interesting about the rest of the top ten finishers in both Cali and Vegas results is that there are more than just Kenseth, Johnson, and Kahne dong well in both. Jeff Burton started his resurgence in those race with a fifth and seventh. Kyle Busch had a tenth and a fourth. Mark Martin had a ninth and a sixth.

As much as I would lke to hope that another bomb would hit this week with a large payout, there is just too much iformation that says it is unlikely as ever for this Mchigan race, in particluar with the likes of Matt Kenseth comng in as the favorite at 6 to 1. The above mentioned drivers all have a good chance at doing well but only Burton may be found at 20 to 1 or more.

A driver that may present value that has not been mentioned is Tony Stewart. Not just becuse he had two top five finishes in the Michigan races last season but because he has his odds may a bit too high because of his shoulder injury. He should be able to be found in the 12 to 1 range.

The rare possibility that the best drivers and teams in the series do not win this week could be supported no further than looking at last year’s second Michigan race when Jeremy Mayfield outsmarted them all on fuel. He paid off very well also at over 40 to 1. I can not say I would be dissappointed if that happened again just for the fact of loosening up the odds up front a bit more. How can true value be had in the odds to win category if the same group of Roush and Hendrick drivers along with Kahne win every week.

Ryan Newman could be someone that surspises this week with a good run. He has always had great runs at Michigan and is on a streak of 5 straight top 15 runs of which include two wins. In all, Newman has 4 career top 5 finishes.

Though Jimmie Johnson has a great record this year at Cali and Vegas, I always look to go againt him at Michigan. In eight career races, Jimmie only has one top 5 finish mixed in with a few mediocre runs and a couple of really bad finishes. He will be a great driver to go against at some major plus money in matchups.

Quick note, the last three Michigan races have been won from starting outside the top ten.

Top 5 Finish Prediction
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Kasey Kahne 7/1
Jeff Burton 20/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Kyle Busch 12/1