Quote:
Originally Posted by Lippsman
I was just wondering about your 70% chance statement. Is that a guess or based on a formula?
Thanks
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Educated estimate. Non-correlated pars can expect roughly 25% ATS for each possible result (+/O,-O,+U,-U). However, heavily correlated pars significantly reduce the -U par %. For example, if Ohio St covers 34 points, it would be very difficult for the game to go under 45.5 (in fact impossible if the opponent scores 6 or more points).
So a game this heavily correlated would expect to see parlay win percentages as follows (again educated estimates):
-/O 35%
+/U 35%
+/O 25%
-/U 5%